Indian Air Force jets fly over in Operation Sindoor formation during Republic Day celebrations in New Delhi. | Photo credit: SHIV KUMAR PUSHPAKAR
Despite the geopolitical turbulence and increased security points across the globe during the opening weeks of 2026, the security environment for India will remain largely the same as in 2025 with more insecurity in the neighbourhood. With limited bandwidth to influence global security events such as those ongoing or unfolding in Ukraine, Iran and Venezuela, India will have its plate full navigating the slippery regional security landscape.
Despite significant successes in Operation Sindoor and the almost complete reduction of the threat of left-wing extremism, the political crisis in Bangladesh has snowballed, throwing the Indian security establishment into uncertainty about what to do next. On another front, the slowing pace of Indo-US security cooperation and the lukewarm US approach to collaborative security in the Indo-Pacific, along with the thawing of US-Pakistani relations, point to the need to rethink India’s approach to the security threat on multiple fronts. On top of that, America’s “retreat” from the global scene and apparent willingness to cede security space in the Indo-Pacific to China have serious security implications for India despite a slight thaw in India-China trade relations.
Op Sindoor: looking ahead
Operation Sindoor has redrawn the contours of India’s unwritten national security strategy, which puts a more assertive and proactive strategy at its center, which is now willing to explore “prevention, preemption and punishment” as the new norm vis-à-vis Pakistan if it continues to support terrorism against India as a tool of the Pakistani state. For the first time in the military history of Independent India, the IAF emerged as the sword weapon of the Indian state forces with its first-mover advantage, precision capability, offensive firepower and remarkably effective ground-based integrated air defense network. At the doctrinal level, the offensive-defensive and multidisciplinary use of air power in Operation Sindoor paved the way for a more nuanced understanding of the importance of air power in the national security calculus. It will be interesting to see if this proactive strategy translates into a more assertive combined arms approach and leads to better integration within the national security establishment.
Clearing the LWE
Out of the 120 districts in 10 states that were heavily affected by the Left Wing Extremism (LWE) movement that threatened to disrupt the socio-cultural fabric of the Indian heartland between 2006 and 2016, the year 2025 has witnessed a remarkable disintegration of the movement through enforcement, coordinated and collaborative security forces that use both traditional kinetic and non-traditional security means. eroded the ideological and financial edifice on which the movement was founded. Currently, only 11 districts remain classified as LWE affected and only three as most affected. While the kinetic action in 2025 saw five top Naxalite Central Committee leaders and 317 cadres killed along with the surrender of 2,000 cadres and several top leaders, in 2026 the focus must shift to a “winning hearts and minds” strategy.
Lending legitimacy to coordinated offensive action will be a concurrent strategy of good governance, rapid development initiatives, and mainstream integration of surrendered cadres.
Instability in Bangladesh
In what is likely to be the fastest decline since independence in bilateral relations and worsening security concerns with its neighbours, India must determine the extent to which its deteriorating relationship with Bangladesh has security implications. Illegal migration will continue to be triggered by climate change, and an internal security threat to India may arise from colluding radical Islamist groups in Bangladesh and Pakistan’s deep state. India, which has invested heavily in restoring stability to all parts of the Northeast through two infrastructure and investment development plans, may be under heavy pressure to secure its porous 4,000-km border with Bangladesh, which spans five states, without weakening its security posture on other fronts such as Myanmar and the Arunachal front.
The Secret Pakistani Threat
Regardless of India’s military success during Operation Sindoor, the military threat from Pakistan has not diminished for several reasons. The first is the meteoric rise of Field Marshal Asim Muneer and his venomous brand of anti-India provincialism. The second is the elusive resumption of Pakistan’s military bonhomie with the United States. Third, the acceleration of China’s military aid to Pakistan to replace all losses and consumption during Operation Sindoor will ensure that any future conflict scenario provides the perfect testing laboratory for Chinese military technology. Finally, the Pakistan-Saudi military alliance and the likelihood of Turkey joining them could cause serious headaches for India. It is unlikely to stop Pakistan’s proxy war strategy against India, which will seek to gain momentum from the growing Pakistan-Bangladesh security relationship and the resurgence of home-grown jihadi networks in India, such as the one that triggered the November 2025 Red Forts explosion in Delhi. Clarion calls for revenge by the Jaish-e-Mohamliemad chief and his Indian chiefs and Indian recklessness against mistakes. the intelligence network must be prepared for Pahalgam or Pulwama style terror attacks.
The Chinese challenge
Despite the easing of tensions (not drawdowns) along the LAC and a superficial thaw in economic relations, the continued infrastructure build-up of the PLA and PLAAF in the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR) and the rattling of Chinese sabers over Arunachal Pradesh suggest that India cannot relax its vigilance against its most serious military adversary in the coming year. The pace at which China is arming itself with multi-disciplinary capabilities such as fifth-generation fighter jets, unmanned aerial combat vehicles of various sizes, ranges and endurance, aircraft carriers and light tanks for high-altitude operations bodes ominously for India. With the window for India to catch up with China militarily long gone, what remains is the ability to create asymmetric strategies in areas where India matches or marginally lags behind China.
In the final analysis, 2026 suggests that India’s national security will experience regional turbulence with minimal involvement in the broader international security environment. Pakistan will continue to be a irritant, Bangladesh will remain volatile until elections and hinder short-term prospects for peace and stability in the Northeast, the front of jihadi radicalism will expand, and China will continue its “dualism” strategy that pushes trade to co-exist with bellicosity and opportunistic coercion along disputed borders. There will be no easy answers for India in 2026.
Arjun Subramaniam is a retired Air Vice Marshal from the IAF. Opinions expressed are personal
Published – 03 Feb 2026 0:28 IST
