Above normal maximum temperatures are expected over many parts of East and Northeast India and some parts of Northwest India and South Peninsular India during the month. | Photo credit: Nagara Gopal
North India is likely to experience a cooler-than-normal summer this time, while other parts of the country may see more heatwave days, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Tuesday (March 31, 2026).
From April to June, above normal maximum temperatures are expected over most parts of East and Northeast India as well as East Central India and adjoining peninsular regions. Maximum temperatures are likely to be “normal to below normal” in the remaining parts.
During this period, there would likely be more than normal number of hot days in parts of eastern, central and northwestern India and the southeastern peninsula.
Many parts of coastal Odisha, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Andhra Pradesh and parts of Gujarat, Maharashtra and Karnataka are likely to experience heat waves in April.
The country is likely to see 12% more rain than normal in April.
Also read | India is bracing for a hotter-than-normal summer, with more hot days expected
El Nino is feared
However, in July, forecasts indicate an ‘El Nino’, a 1+ degree Celsius warming in areas of the central Pacific Ocean, often associated with reduced rain in India.
Experts said it was too early to associate cooler summers with reduced monsoon rainfall, although this is a pattern that has held in the past. The IMD is expected to provide the first forecast of the expected performance of the 2026 monsoon on 15
India experienced a surplus monsoon in 2024 and 2025. Apart from 2023, India has experienced “normal” or excess rainfall in all years since 2020. As fertilizer production is expected to take a hit this year due to the war between Iran, Israel and the US, poor rainfall could affect kharif sowing.
Also read | Extreme weather claims 4,064 lives across India in nine months, CSE report
“A cooler-than-normal summer means less land heating, which usually acts as a natural drag on moisture and the monsoon. This could affect the onset of the monsoon and its initial progress (over Kerala in June),” said Madhavan Rajeevan, a climatologist and former secretary in the Department of Earth Sciences. “However, a clearer picture could only emerge around the end of May. There is also a ‘super’ El Nino forecast. We should not worry now, but if these signals persist in May, the government should prioritize drought management.”
At a press conference, IMD Director General M. Mohapatra said that while there were “textbook” relationships between land temperature and rainfall, the relationship was not simple and several meteorological factors influenced the monsoon.
Historical IMD records indicate that 2004 and 2014 were years of relatively cooler summers followed by weak monsoon rainfall over northwest India.
In March this year, there were several rain episodes that brought 12% more rainfall than normal for the month. There were eight western disturbances (storms that originate in the Mediterranean Sea) that brought rain to northern India, as opposed to the normal five-six.
Published – 31 March 2026 18:19 IST
