Monthly average rainfall expected to be below normal in July, deficit now 40%: IMD

A woman walks along the boardwalk on a rainy monsoon day, at Marine Drive in Mumbai, June 30, 2026. | Photo credit: PTI

Rainfall in July – the most important of the monsoon months – will be “below normal” or less than 94% of what is normal for the month, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general of the India Meteorological Department (IMD), said on Tuesday (Jun 30, 2026).

India’s current monsoon deficit is 40%.

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“Below-normal precipitation can pose significant challenges to agriculture, water resources, hydropower generation, ecosystem sustainability and drinking water availability,” the agency said in a statement. “Such conditions may increase the risk of heat stress and pressure on available water resources in several regions. To reduce potential impacts, relevant agencies and stakeholders may consider early planning and preparedness measures, including water conservation, efficient management of available water resources, and appropriate agricultural contingency measures.”

The outlook for July comes on the back of weak June rainfall, when the deficit was almost 40% of what is normal for the month. The 99.5 mm received was the fifth lowest since 1901 and the least since 2014.

“Usually two to three low pressure systems in the Bay of Bengal (pre-cyclonic moisture bands) bring rain in June. This time there was none. The El Nino that developed in June adversely affected rainfall,” Mr Mohapatra told a press conference. The first week of July is likely to see good rainfall in India and this will benefit sowing, he said.

But with the monthly rainfall expected to be light, the overall outlook is “gloomy”, a senior meteorologist at IMD told The Hindu. “The last two monsoons have been good, so we have some excess water in the reservoirs, but these could be drained faster by higher evaporation (due to low rainfall in the coming weeks and high temperatures),” the meteorologist added.

The area under kharif cultivation has shrunk by 22% compared to the same period last year, according to the agriculture ministry, with farmers likely to postpone planting rice until stronger rains. Key water reservoirs in India have about 25% less water than in June 2025, according to the latest data available from the Central Water Commission on June 25. But the 10-year average is 5% more than the usual June.

Monsoon deficits are becoming more significant in what forecasters around the world have warned is likely to be a “Super El Nino” year. This means that the unusually hot central Pacific only emerges during this peak period in winter—well after the southwest monsoon officially ends in late September. Six out of 10 El Nino years mean weak southwest monsoon rainfall.

Reputable weather models from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology suggest that the Indian Ocean Dipole, or IOD, a climate pattern characterized by changing sea surface temperatures between the western and eastern Indian Oceans that can strengthen or weaken the Indian monsoon depending on its phase, could develop in the second monsoon (August and September), theoretically ameliorating the impact of El Nino.

“Our own models and several other reputable models show that the dipole will be ‘neutral’ (meaning useless). El Nino is like a big brother and the IOD cannot fully compensate,” Mr Mohapatra said.

The 1997-98 El Nino – one of the strongest in meteorological history – saw 2% more rainfall than normal in India due to a favorable IOD phase. “This happened only once,” the IMD DG said.

Published – 30 Jun 2026 18:22 IST