Monsoon may remain muted after a vigorous onset in Kerala

Monsoon clouds cover the sky in Ernakulam on Tuesday evening. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday predicted that the Southwest Monsoon is likely to reach Kerala by June 4. Photo credit: H. VIBHU

The Southwest Monsoon, which missed the predicted onset date of 26 May and the normal onset date of 1 June over Kerala this season, is finally scheduled to begin on 4 June 2026. However, like the slow progress of the monsoon current this season, the monsoon is likely to remain sluggish over Kerala in June after a relatively vigorous onset.

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A cyclonic circulation that lay close to the Kerala coast until Tuesday delayed the advance of the monsoon, although the monsoon reached the Andaman Sea and southern Sri Lanka ahead of schedule on 16 May. Although south Kerala got some benefits from the cyclonic circulation, the system prevented the establishment of monsoon conditions over north Kerala. The northward movement of the system has now almost cleared the way for the monsoon to advance, with the current expected to spread across the state’s mainland within a day or two, said Neetha K. Gopal, director of the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

However, after a stormy onset lasting about seven days, the monsoon flow over the state is expected to lose pace and rhythm, raising fears of a lackluster rainy season in Kerala during June, Ms Gopal said.

The IMD has also predicted a dismal monsoon season for Kerala and the rest of India, which is likely to worsen the unusually warm ocean waters in the tropical Pacific where El Niño conditions are developing. These conditions are expected to affect global temperature and rainfall patterns and increase the risk of drought in the Indian subcontinent, she added.

Risk of drought

Traditionally, June and July together contribute more than 60% of the seasonal rainfall that Kerala receives during the four-month southwest monsoon season. A decrease in rainfall during these two months would increase the risk of drought in the coming summer season. During El Niño years, the development of rain systems over the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea is generally weaker than during La Niña years. La Niña strengthens the trade winds and alters the planetary atmospheric circulation in a way that typically promotes increased rainfall in the Indian subcontinent depending on the season.

When the southwest monsoon missed its usual onset date by about a week in 2016 and 2023, so that it began over Kerala on 8 June in both years, the monsoon season ended with little rainfall. This was followed by drought-like conditions and unusually high summer temperatures, according to IMD data.

The IMD on Wednesday issued an orange alert for four districts — Alappuzha, Kottayam, Ernakulam and Thrissur — warning of heavy rainfall. Similarly, eight districts from Thiruvananthapuram to Thrissur have been placed on orange alert for Thursday, while the remaining districts are on yellow alert for both days, warning of isolated heavy rains, according to the latest IMD update.

Published – 02 Jun 2026 20:47 IST