Monsoon deficit threatens Kerala’s Onam harvest

A prolonged spell of weak monsoon activity has raised serious concerns among Kerala’s agrarian community as official data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) reveals a significant 35% rainfall deficit across the state in the current southwest monsoon between June 1 and July 21. Kerala recorded an actual cumulative rainfall of just 722.1 mm against the seasonal normal of 5.106 mm. Of the 14 districts, 12 have fallen into the “deficient” category, while one district has entered the severe “high deficit” classification, leaving farmers facing acute water stress during a critical phase of the crop calendar.

The highland district of Wayanad has emerged as the worst affected area in the state, suffering a staggering 61% deficit. Another hill district, Idukki, is experiencing an equally alarming situation with a 59% deficit, receiving 530.1 mm against the expected 1,285.6 mm. Other key agricultural districts also recorded significant shortfalls, including Kollam (-39%), Palakkad (-37%), Thrissur (-35%) and Ernakulam (-32%). Only Thiruvananthapuram (-10%) managed to stay within normal limits.

The drought poses an imminent threat to the growing of seasonal crops timed especially for the upcoming Onam festival market, when consumer demand and prices peak. Season-specific florists, which have expanded significantly across regional clusters to meet the festive demand for Pookkalams, have been hit hard. Flowering crops such as marigold and jasmine suffer from moisture, which leads to stunted plant development and premature drying. “Without timely summer showers or sustained monsoon rains, flower yields could drop dramatically, forcing the state to rely almost entirely on costly imports from Tamil Nadu,” says Sujith, a farmer from Thiruvananthapuram.

Food crops

The condition will also affect the staple harvest of festive food, raising fears of supply shortages and price spikes ahead of Onam. Since the Nendran banana requires constant soil moisture at the clustering stage, farmers fear that lack of proper rain may lead to smaller fruit size. “Small bananas are unlikely to fetch a reasonable market price. Even worse, several other crops grown specifically for the Onam festival are facing a similar decline,” says Sasidharan, a farmer from Palakkad.

Agriculture experts warn that if weak monsoon conditions persist for the rest of July, the shortfall will translate into severe supply chain disruptions and steep hikes in retail prices during the Onam season. “When monsoon rains recede during critical stages of growth, damage cascades down the entire supply chain. The Onam harvest is the financial backbone of thousands of small farmers. Deficit rains during this period not only mean less production, but completely ruin the marketability of the crop. Without the right size, farmers lose their bargaining power with wholesalers and consumers will still pay for stock shortages at retailers.”

Published – 21 Jul 2026 19:22 IST