The ignition is considered to be the most important clearing between the two West Asian Archives for decades, with the former Indian diplomat Mahesh Sachdev describes it in a recent column as an “important point of inflexion” in the 26th century. Mint explains:
Why did Israel launch Rising Lion Operation?
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that the aim of the operation was to prevent the country of Shiite majority from the acquisition of nuclear weapons, which, in his words, represent the “existential threat” of Israel.
However, the wider goal of Netanyahua may include a regime change, ie the overthrow of the theocratic government headed by the highest leader Ayatollah Sayyid Ali Khameneim. When the Iranian people approached 13 June, he said that “if we achieve our goal, we will also clean the way to achieve your goal, which is freedom”.
Israel weakened the Iranian regime not only by the latest attacks, but also by a systematic focus on its representatives – especially mothers and Hezbollah – as a result of a terrorist attack of 7 October 2023.
Iran also lost valuable allies in Syria after the fall of Bashar al-Assad in December 2024.
But are this development enough to cause extensive riots and lead to a change in the government in the Islamic nation?
It’s not clear yet. Some protests were reported in Iran, but against Israeli attacks. In 2022, the Iranian government faced extensive protests after the death of the 22 -year -old Mahsy Amini, after its arrest the moral police in Tehran for alleged violations of the rules requiring women to cover the hair with a hijab or scarf. The Khamenei regime survived the “woman, life, freedom” movement.
However, the celebrated Tehran can accept strict international conditions for its nuclear program that can work in favor of Israel.
How would we weakened Iran affect regional stability?
The prospects that Iran will become nuclear energy have always been carefully perceived by Sunni Arab neighbors. The acquisition of Iran’s nuclear weapons will lead to countries such as Saudi Arabia that will perform their own nuclear weapons programs. Therefore, any exposed to Iranian abilities in this area would be naturally a relief.
But Saudi Arabia, Oman, the United Arab Emirates and other regional powers condemned Israeli attacks.
Persian Gulf states seem to be in dilemma. While Iran, with its representatives, was a challenge for all countries in the region, it was also considered a country that kept Israel under control. Now they will have to cope with the reviving and powerful Israel and demand us for President Donald Trump.
According to Sachdev, the Sunni Arab world has little love for Iran or Israel. Strong Israel means that these nations would have to normalize links with it under the provisions of Abraham’s agreements of 2020.
“This war is about Iran’s emasculation as an important player in the region and not only about a nuclear question,” said TS Tirumurti, a former Indian permanent UN representative. “Whether the complete military dominance of Israel in the region is in their best interest is something that the country in the Gulf of Persian has to think about, given their own growing ambitions to play a greater geopolitical role,” said Tirumurti, who served in Indian missions in Egypt and Gaza.
What is India’s attitude?
India has always carefully treaded on the political complexity of the region. Iran is considered a country with which India has “civilization ties” and as a country that opens an alternative path to inland Afghanistan and Central Asia through the port of Chabahar.
Iran was also an important source of fuel for energy India until he stopped importing oil from the ground under pressure from the previous Trump administration.
However, the new Delhi had reservations about the Iranian nuclear weapon program because it is a signatory of the Nuclear weapons (NPT) contract. He advocated dialogue and diplomacy to resolve the disagreement of this matter.
On the other hand, since 1992, when India has established formal diplomatic relations with Israel, the Jewish state has been his key partner in several areas, including defense and agriculture. India acquires bombs, drones and technologies that she employed in operations against Pakistan, as well as during the Sindoor operation.
As a result of the attack of Pahalgam of 22 April, it was only Israel who identified Pakistan named as the perpetrator of a terrorist attack.
Indian alertness also stems from the fact that approximately 9 million Indians live in the Gulf countries and the wider West Asian region. Their safety and security, as well as their economic benefits in terms of remittances, are essential.
Most of the time, India took its allusions from the Arab Gulf states and responded to complex situations in the region, including the situation of the Palestinians. “India is now looking at the events in the region through the lens of its close relations with Israel. The almost paralyzed reaction of the Gulf countries against the Gaza War and its serious impact on the Palestinian and the fear of Iranian role in the region in the region even more convinced that it was adhered to the right policy,” Turumurti said.
This would explain why India distanced himself from a strong conviction published by China-Rus, who dominated the organization for cooperation in Shanghai this weekend.
How does it affect the conflict to India-Middle East-Europe-economic corridor (IMEC)?
IMEC, which was announced in 2023 on the edge of the G20 summit in Nový Delhi, is a strategic project aimed at linking South Asia, West Asia and Europe through transport, data, renewable electrical networks and net hydrogen pipelines.
“Geopolitical and geo -economic considerations are the basis of the justification of IMEC,” according to the Think Tank Observer Research Foundation.
The proposal grew out of the level expected in West Asia after 2020 Abraham Accords and the establishment of Israel-India-US-U (I2U2) Grouping in October 2021. October 20, 2023, a terrorist attack in Israel and the following war significantly slowed.
Given the fluctuating links to India with Pakistan, China and Bangladesh, Imec is considered a changer of games for the country’s business and economic prospects in the coming years. “It is a strategic project that India wants to see through. It can be delayed, but one cannot write it off,” said the person who is familiar with the Persian Gulf region and the IMEC project.
However, the recent outbreak adds another layer of uncertainty to take -off the project, due to the unpredictability of the nature of conflicts, as well as the current, in the region intertwined.
Elizabeth Roche is an associate professor of practice, OP Jindal Global University, Sonipat.
(Tagstotranslate) Operation Rising Lion
