New Delhi: India’s kharif foodgrain production is expected to rise to 173.33 million tonnes in 2025-26 as heavy monsoon rains boosted acreage and yields, first advance estimates released by the Union agriculture ministry said on Wednesday.
The Kharif production estimate is 3.87 million tonnes higher than last year. Rice production is expected at 124.50 million tonnes, up 1.73 million tonnes from the previous Kharif season.
Maize production is expected to rise sharply by 3.49 million tonnes to 28.30 million tonnes, a sign that farmers are diversifying their crops to secure better prices amid strong demand from the feed and starch industries.
Economists said increased production of rice, corn and oilseeds could ease pressure on supplies and keep food inflation under control.
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DK Joshi, chief economist at Crisil, said the estimates were broadly in line with their expectations. “It has been a year of excessive rains but not all parts of the country have been adversely affected. Other regions have done well and overall we are doing fairly well in agriculture,” he said. “Rabi outlook is also positive so overall crop production should be sustained.
Coarse cereal production is pegged at 41.41 million tonnes, while kharif pulses are estimated at 7.41 million tonnes. Within pulses, production of tur is expected at 3.59 million tonnes, urad at 1.20 million tonnes and moong at 1.72 million tonnes.
Oilseed production is estimated at 27.56 million tonnes, led by groundnut at 11.09 million tonnes, up 0.68 million tonnes from last year. Soybean production is projected at 14.26 million tons. The higher oilseed numbers come at a time when edible oil inflation has moderated.
Later estimate
The first preliminary estimates came out later than usual. The Ministry of Agriculture usually releases the kharif projections in early November. In a report, Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan said some regions reported crop losses due to excessive rainfall, while most areas benefited from a favorable monsoon that boosted overall crop growth.
Sugarcane production is estimated at 475.61 million tonnes, an increase of 21 million tonnes, indicating a supportive cycle for crushing units in major producing states.
Cotton production is seen at 29.21 million bales of 170 kg, almost unchanged from the 2024-25 level of 29.72 million bales. Industry officials say the stagnant trend reflects farmers’ reduced enthusiasm for cotton, partly due to the government’s zero import duty policy, which has weighed on domestic prices during peak periods.
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The government exempted cotton imports from duty until the end of December.
Ganesh Nanote, a cotton grower from Maharashtra’s Vidarbha region, said farmers had shifted some of their land to maize as cotton prices remained uncertain during the season. “Cotton has not given steady returns for the past two years and when the government allowed imports at zero duty, rates fell further during peak periods,” Nanote said. “Many of us have tried corn because demand from feed mills is strong and the crop is less risky in terms of input costs,” he said.
Necessary for distribution scheme
Robust kharif production is seen as essential to ensure continued free distribution of food grains at the center under Prime Minister Gariba Kalyan Anna Yojana. Under this programme, the government provides an additional 5 kg of food grains free every month to more than 80 million beneficiaries under the National Food Security Act and the Center has expanded the program to ensure continued support to low-income households.
Manish Daga, managing director of Cotton Guru, which helps farmers in the production process, said India’s first preliminary estimates of 29.21 million bales of cotton pointed to a sub-par cotton crop this year.
“In the near term, we expect limited availability of clean ready-to-spin cotton, a solid base for good quality grades and higher import dependence to meet mill demand,” Daga said. “Rain-affected lower quality lots will continue to trade at discounts, so mills are likely to rely on a mix of domestic and imported cotton, with parity shaped by the USD-INR trend, sea freight and Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) sales pace.
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Daga said immediate priorities should include prompt and transparent crop loss audits at the state and district levels to stabilize market expectations and prevent disorderly trading. “We also need to move from rejection to moisture management by publishing graded rainfall at APMC and CCI centers, which will prevent distress sales and maintain the flow of quality cotton,” he said, adding that mills also need to clarify their import policies by March to ensure affordable coverage without facing stop-start fluctuations.
In the medium term, Daga said, “The focus should be on increasing yields through better seed selection, contamination control, nutrient and water management and integrated pest management.”
