The rate of growth in Kerala’s population is expected to continue until about 2041, after which a gradual decline will begin. Life expectancy in Kerala is projected to increase from 75.1 years in 2026 to 82.9 years by 2051. Until then, trends indicate that Kerala “will continue to be India’s oldest state”.
These are part of a set of population-related projections for Kerala in a new national-level report released this week by the Thiruvananthapuram-based International Institute for Migration and Development (IIMAD) and the Population Foundation of India (PFI). IIMAD Chairman S. Irudayarajan was the principal investigator of the report and J. Retnakumar, co-investigator.
Kerala’s population is projected to grow from 3.34 million in 2011 to 3.58 million (according to the median variant projections) by 2026. From then to 2041, Kerala’s population is projected to reach 3.62 million. Since then, it is likely to decline gradually to 3.55 million by 2051, according to the report “Unraveling India’s Demographic Future: Population Projections for States and Union Territories 2021-2051”.
Projections for Kerala indicate that the percentage of people aged 60 and above in the state’s total population will increase from 18.6% in 2026 to 30.6% by 2051. Kerala’s median age will increase from 37 to 47 during this period. It noted that Kerala will be among the states to touch a “minimum total fertility rate (TFR) limit (TFR) of 1.4 by 2051. The proportion of child population (0–14) was highest in Bihar (30.3%) and lowest in Kerala (19.3%) in 2021. By mid-century, Bihar will continue to have the highest share of children at 22.6%, while Kerala’s share will drop to 12.8%, the lowest in the country.
Oldest-old
In 2021, Kerala had the largest percentage of the oldest old (80+) at almost 2%. By 2051, Kerala is projected to continue to have the largest share of this age group at 6.4%, followed by Tamil Nadu at 5.2%. “As per our projections, Bihar will remain the youngest state in India, while Kerala will remain the oldest,” the report said.
The report presents population projections in low, medium and high “variants” to capture a range of demographic scenarios and to reflect the inherent uncertainties in the projections. The low and high variants define the lower and upper bounds of the projected population. The medium option is designed to provide a realistic estimate of the future population, reflecting demographic trends that most closely match current trends. The “low option” suggests that Kerala’s population will be 3.57 million in 2026 and 3.49 million in 2051. All indicate a decline after 2041.
Rapid urbanization
The report also has an interesting look at Kerala’s urban-rural population ratio, which stood at 47.7% and 52.3% in 2011, respectively. It is predicted to increase to 91.1% and 8.9% by 2051, which is an obvious indicator of the rapid urbanization of the state.
According to the report, it drew on a number of demographic data sets, including the Census, the Sample Registration System, the National Family Health Survey, the Civil Registration System and the National Sample Survey. The cohort component method was applied to 22 states with a population exceeding six million as reported in the 2011 census.
Published – 28 Nov 2025 19:55 IST
