Kerala’s minorities, who make up about 47 percent of the state’s population, remain the deciding factor in determining poll results in a region long known for its bipolar politics.
Wooing minority voters has been one of the main agenda items of all political fronts in the state. The Congress’s long-standing association with the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML), a predominantly Muslim political group, ensured that a significant number of Muslim votes were won in favor of the United Democratic Front. In contrast, the CPI(M)-led LDF had to be mostly content with support from splinter Muslim groups and rebels from the League. However, the CPI (M) has often tried to sway Muslim votes in its favor with its stand on international and national issues that would resonate well with the community.
Realizing that it needs a minority vote share to gain a foothold in Kerala’s electoral politics, the BJP is trying all tricks to gain the trust of sections of the Christian community, hoping that this support will translate into electoral gains.
With the parliamentary elections approaching, all three fronts are once again trying together to reach minority voters.
It is often believed that a section of neutral Muslim voters supported the LDF in both the 2016 and 2021 parliamentary polls, mainly because the BJP was in power at the centre. The Left has successfully projected itself as the most credible force capable of countering the politics of the Right, especially amid the perception that the Congress has failed to counter the BJP effectively.
However, community insiders feel that sentiment seems to be shifting. Sections of the Muslim community are increasingly disillusioned with the LDF, especially as the CPI(M) feels humiliated with SNDP general secretary Yoga Vellappalli Natesan following his disparaging remarks against sections of the community. “The CPI(M)’s stance has hurt a large section of ordinary Muslims, even as some intellectuals in the community continue to support the Left,” says Siraj Karoly, a lawyer.
The Samastha Kerala Jamiyyathul Ulama and its affiliates have traditionally leaned towards the UDF and are expected to be supported by many in the various Mujahideen groups. The Welfare Party of India, the political wing of Jamaat-e-Islami, has formally extended its support to the UDF. Until 2019, Jamaat-e-Islami supported the LDF.
The Sunni faction led by Kanthapuram AP Aboobacker Musliar has yet to announce its position, though it has historically aligned with the Left. The CPI(M)’s silence on Vellappalli’s remarks is said to have caused discomfort in that camp as well.
Meanwhile, smaller but notable organizations like SDPI and PDP are likely to support the LDF in select constituencies. However, their limited support also highlights the increasingly visible role of community political parties.
The Christian factor
The Christian vote, once seen as a cohesive bloc capable of swinging results across central Kerala, is now much more fragmented but no less decisive. Christians make up more than 18 percent of the state’s population.
The long-running dispute over the Malankara Church remains a defining factor for both Jacobite and Orthodox factions, shaping political preferences in a handful of constituencies in central and southern Kerala.
The Jacobite Church, for example, has signaled support for those who championed its cause, a position widely seen as aligning itself with the left. In contrast, the Orthodox faction took a starkly different stance, openly expressing displeasure with governments failing to implement court orders regarding the church dispute.
Meanwhile, the Pentecostal groups are emerging as a separate political group, sections of which this time show a noticeable left leaning.
For political parties, this means that there is no single narrative that can win over Christian voters. Success will depend on understanding its many layers, responding to local concerns, and carefully navigating denominational dynamics.
The temple factor
The politics surrounding the Sabarimala temple continue to shape Kerala’s electoral landscape. The alleged theft of gold and ongoing legal proceedings related to the entry of women of all ages have brought it back into the limelight. The UDF is trying to keep the issue alive, it feels a political advantage. The LDF, however, rejects claims that it is losing ground and relies on its revised stance on the issue of women’s entry, highlighting steps taken to investigate alleged irregularities.
The BJP seems not interested in projecting the Sabarimala issue as a key poll plank, except in a few constituencies like Aranmula.
Published – 28 March 2026 10:00 PM IST
