As public campaigning for the Assembly elections ends on Tuesday evening, the 73 segments in north Kerala spread across Kasaragod, Kannur, Kozhikode, Wayanad, Malappuram, Palakkad and Thrissur form a political mosaic, with each constituency telling a different electoral story.
The region has become a battleground of intense, detailed contestation, with exceptionally high stakes as Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan and six of his cabinet colleagues fight not only to retain their seats but also to turn Malabar into a highly watched referendum on the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF)-led Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI(M)) government.
In the absence of a clear wave either for or against the ruling LDF or the opposition Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF), the political terrain remains unstable with undercurrents of communal polarization and demographically influenced outcomes.
The UDF is campaigning on a platform of reforms, drawing optimism from its success in the three-tier polls held last December, which pollsters believe laid the groundwork for a comeback. However, the LDF relies on its management and disciplined organizational apparatus.
Personal turnover
Earlier, the UDF campaign took a personal turn. Injured MP K. Sudhakaran is still a central figure after being denied his chance to contest from his Kannur stronghold due to the party’s policy against fielding sitting MPs. While Mr. Sudhakaran has officially settled in, the initial ecchymosis has left its mark on local campaigning.
At the same time, the Congress has stepped up its ideological attack, alleging collusion between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the CPI(M). They claim that the two parties have made an adjustment to defeat the UDF and point to a perceived lack of pressure from central agencies on state-level corruption cases.
Incidentally, the glaring subplot in this election is the emergence of CPI(M)-dissidents who have become candidates in Kannur and Palakkad districts. Although they are receiving support from the UDF in their bid to crack the Left’s voter base, current analysis suggests that these ousted leaders are unlikely to move the needle in a big way.
Like anywhere else in the state, the campaign is carefully anchored on various local and national issues defined by socio-economic factors, state-led development initiatives, the effectiveness of welfare systems, the pressing challenges of human-wildlife conflict, unemployment and rising prices, and even the personal merits of individual candidates.
The lingering impact of the Sabarimala issue also continues to affect voter sentiment along with fears of communal overtures and a tactical understanding with Jamaat Islami Hind and the Social Democratic Party of India (SDPI). All three fronts rely on strict political metrics to secure their respective strongholds.
Kasaragod district has traditionally seen mixed political trends with the LDF remaining strong in the central segments while the UDF dominates parts of the northern belt. In Manjeswaram, former BJP state president K. Surendran is leading the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) brigade in a seat known for thin margins where the party has repeatedly come close to victory. In the Kasaragod segment, BJP candidate ML Ashwini is in a head-to-head fight with the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML), making it one of the few constituencies in Kerala where the contest is largely bipolar between the BJP and the UDF.
In Kannur, the UDF launched an aggressive challenge in several constituencies. The UDF currently has two constituencies – Peravur and Irrikur – which are likely to witness a real contest this time. The LDF’s decision to field KK Shailaj has made Peravur a keenly watched constituency.
Bolstered by its strong performance in the three-phase local body elections, the Congress-IUML combine enters the Kozhikode district contest with renewed confidence, eyeing an improvement in its tally from the current two out of 13 seats. The contest has special significance for the Congress, which has gone without a sitting legislator in the district for two decades. Kuttiyadi, Perambra and Nadapuram are the segments that deserve a lot of attention.
In Wayanad, the Congress looks set to be on comfortable ground in Sulthan Bathery and Kalpetta, though the CPI(M) retains a meaningful lead in Mananthavady.
Firmly with UDF
Of all the districts in the state, Malappuram seems firmly set on the UDF course with the IUML confidently holding the reins. In the last election, the coalition swept 12 out of 16 seats. Nilambur, claimed by the then LDF-backed independent PV Anvar, has since merged with the UDF and Mr Anvar now finds himself locked in a showdown with PA Public Works and Tourism Minister Mohamed Riyas in Kozhikode’s Beypore. The picture is hazy in Tanur. In Tirur, however, Minister V. Abdurahiman faces a fierce battle. Meanwhile, Ponnani, Perinthalmanna and Thavanur offer their own share of bitter rivalry. Among the 12 segments of Palakkad district, it is the Palakkad constituency that has captured the imagination of political observers across the state. BJP candidate Sobha Surendran is sparing no effort and mustering all the resources at her disposal in a determined bid for victory. In Malampuzze, the contours of a three-pronged fight are increasingly taking shape. Ottappalam also deserves a lot of attention where ousted local CPI(M) leader PK Sasi is running with UDF support and will be a test of his political standing.
For nearly a decade, the LDF held Thrissur in an iron grip, bagging 12 of the 13 assembly seats in 2016 and 2021 and reducing the UDF’s presence to a fringe presence. But the script cracked in 2024. Riding on the personal appeal of Suresh Gopi, the NDA made a historic breakthrough in the Lok Sabha in Thrissur, unsettling the established bipolar politics of the state. However, subsequent local opinion polls have shown that the NDA is struggling to translate this victory into lasting gains from the people.
Published – 07 Apr 2026 09:44 IST
