Some workers spray plastic toy parts in various colours to meet stringent client requirements, while their colleagues fix wheels to trucks. Mountains of cartons are stacked at the edge of the factory floor, ready to be shipped to American buyers ahead of the holiday season. With Thanksgiving and Christmas around the corner, the third quarter is the busiest time of the year.
The sense of urgency and excitement on the factory floor contrasts with the gloom in the back office of Propelus Manufacturing, which is offering steep discounts to its American clientele after US President Donald Trump threatened a 50% tariff rate on imports from India.
“Our 2025 orders…the clients will take, but we have to cut rates. We have to support them. Only then they may come back. Clients are hunting for countries with the lowest tariff,” said Anshu Arya, who set up this factory post-pandemic, spotting an opportunity in the US pivot from China’s factory floor. “But our 2026 orders of $1.5 million have been halted.”
25% tariffs are already in effect. Secondary sanctions, in the form of additional 25% tariffs for India’s purchase of Russian oil, are set to kick in on 27 August. Trump may eventually decide against pressing ahead with the additional tariff, but it has already spooked buyers in the US. Even if withdrawn, the new diplomatic reality may make them more cautious about sourcing from India, especially as bilateral relations have soured—close ties with Washington were a key selling point for Indian manufacturers. And even at 25%, India’s tariff would remain five percentage points higher than that of its closest competitor, Vietnam.
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The factory floor of Propelus Manufacturing, near Bengaluru.
Propelus’s LinkedIn page calls it “A real alternative to China right now.” 65% of its revenue is generated from the export market, with the US accounting for 90% of it.
“I was at home that evening. I immediately started getting calls after the US tariff announcement came in. Clients were calling to put orders on hold. Everybody has to save their business. There is nothing I can do, I just have to oblige,” said Arya.
Case of unfinished shoes
The US is the largest consumer market in the world despite being home to only 4% of the world’s population. According to Deutsche Bank, it accounts for almost 30% of global consumption. US private consumption is about $19 trillion annually, according to research platform Microtrends, making it the most lucrative and sought-after export market.
Labour-intensive manufacturing exports in apparel, textiles, footwear, furniture, toys and gems and jewellery are likely to be the most impacted by US tariffs. The industry functions on thin margins and employs a huge chunk of the manufacturing workforce in the country. According to Crisil, last fiscal, the US accounted for about 20% of India’s merchandise exports.
About 2,000 kilometres away from Bengaluru, in Agra, Legwork, a footwear contract manufacturer, has seen new US orders dry up. Exports make 60% of sales at Legwork.
“Earlier, sales agents were giving us hope that with China+1, we will get lots of orders. Even Chinese manufacturers were enquiring. Now everything has unravelled,” said owner Vijay Nainani. Last year, Legwork shipped a massive order of 300,000 shoes for Costco, a retailer in the US.
Without sharing names, he said many in the industry have started shipping unfinished shoes to Vietnam, Cambodia, and Bangladesh, and are tying up with manufacturers there to finish up the final product so as to hide the country of origin and escape US tariffs on India.
Raghunandan Saraf, chief executive at Rajasthan-based Saraf Furniture, calls the current uncertainty “tougher than a bad situation.” His top export markets are in Europe, with the US making up for small volumes. Exports make up 55% of total sales.
Now, some buyers from the European Union (EU) have also slowed down orders because of global uncertainty and the tariff wars—a double whammy for Indian manufacturers.
“We are seeing a slowdown in orders from the EU,” said Saraf. “Our buyers are apprehensive right now about believing their own forecast. Our importers give us a sales forecast for the next six months, based on which we build our inventory. Right now, they are not confident because of tariffs and wars.”
Saraf has slowed down production in his factories to avoid a buildup of unsold inventory.
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Saraf Furniture’s factory floor.
‘Give it to Bangladesh’
The anguish and anxiety felt by Arya, Saraf, and Nainani are not restricted to small and mid-scale manufacturers in the country. Raymond Ltd, one of India’s top textile and apparel manufacturers and exporters, is negotiating the price hit from the tariff fallout with its US clients.
“We are right now dealing with a US customer for whom the fabric is ready in India. He said, take the fabric, give it to Bangladesh, and get it stitched to a simple garment there, and pay only 20% duty. It can be made available before Thanksgiving. For other complicated garments like suits, he has no option but to continue with us,” said Amit Agarwal, Raymond’s chief financial officer.
Agarwal said Raymond might consider ramping up production in its Ethiopia factory for the US market. Ethiopia faces only a 10% tariff.
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File photo of Amit Agarwal, Raymond’s chief financial officer.
He is not alone in considering a diversification of production outside India as a call of last resort. Godrej Interio, which exports office furniture, is also considering increasing production from its factories in Oman and Vietnam—countries with lower tariffs than India at present. The US has imposed a 10% tariff on Oman and 20% on Vietnam.
“We have manufacturing presence in countries beyond India. We are exploring producing more from these locations. It is a thought in the back of our mind,” said Swapneel Nagarkar, executive vice president and business head at Godrej Interio.
The ‘India+1’ plan
Alexandra Hermann, an economist with Oxford Economics, is concerned about the impact on India’s attractiveness as a manufacturing hub if 50% tariffs were to continue.
“India’s appeal as a production and investment alternative to China is shrinking as compared to the already-bigger manufacturing hubs in the rest of Asia, and, in fact, we hear that Indian and global manufacturers are starting to think about ‘India+1’ strategies now,” she said.
‘India + 1’ means that companies primarily serving the US market will start thinking about moving out of India.
India’s labour-intensive manufacturing exports have already struggled to compete on the world stage. According to the World Bank, countries such as Vietnam and Bangladesh, and even advanced economies such as Germany and the Netherlands, have become the primary beneficiaries of China’s shrinking market share in low-skill manufacturing.
The data shows India’s share in global exports of apparel, leather, textiles and footwear (ALTF) initially grew from 0.9% in 2002 to a peak of 4.5% in 2013, but it subsequently declined to 3.5% in 2022. In contrast, Vietnam’s share has increased to 5.9% and Bangladesh reached 5.1% of global ALTF exports in 2022.
India’s rigid labour laws, lack of supply chain ecosystem, and high import duties on critical raw materials have kept the cost of production higher than in other Asian economies. Adding punitive tariffs, such as those imposed by the US, makes it close to impossible for India to compete for US orders.
Abhishek Ganguly, co-founder of footwear manufacturer Agilitas Sports, said the industry struggles with the lack of raw material supply chain and needs to import top-quality machinery and shoe components from China, among other countries.
“In this industry, seasonality is a big factor, so speed to manufacture and to market is an important success metric. Global brands say India will never be timeline-wise as fast as Vietnam and China,” said Ganguly. He is focusing on making in India for the domestic market.
In the past decade itself, countries like Vietnam effectively utilized their cost-competitive labour and created a business-friendly environment conducive to manufacturing. The small country has raced ahead due to its first-mover advantage, proximity to China, a strong network of 16 free trade agreements across the globe, enabling investment laws, and simpler labour laws that make scaling factories quicker.
In comparison, India’s labour-intensive manufacturing is highly fragmented, consisting of small and unscalable factories. They find it difficult to compete in the global market and rely mainly on domestic demand to survive.
Battle in a sabzi market
The US’ pivot from China was a golden opportunity for India to claw some share back. The gap left by the potential retreat of the US, according to manufacturers, won’t be an easy one to fill with alternative foreign markets or domestic demand.
“If you don’t have the biggest consumer market in the world, how will you become a global leader in manufacturing? Price efficiency only happens with scale, and that can only happen if we make for the US,” said Arya.
According to Arya’s professional experience, American consumers spend up to ₹2,300 on a single toy purchase versus ₹1,800 in the EU and only ₹500 in India.
On a per capita basis, India’s domestic market is relatively small compared to global markets. According to the Federation of Economic Development, India’s domestic clothing market was valued at $55 billion in 2019, whereas the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) countries collectively imported clothing worth $380 billion—nearly seven times the size of the Indian market.
“Export orders come in bulk and make our lives easier. For Costco, we had to make 300,000 pairs in one design, and it was very easy to make. We bought raw material in bulk at cheap prices. For Indian brands, the order sizes are like 600 pairs, and they fight with us on price like it is a sabzi (vegetable) market,” said Legwork’s Nainani.
Indian brands fight with us on price like it is a sabzi market.
—Vijay Nainani
Labour-intensive exports are the launchpad for any country aspiring to become a global manufacturing hub. All Asian countries, including China and South Korea, used labour-intensive manufacturing exports to start their factory revolution before moving up the value chain. It helps employ large swaths of the young population and requires relatively less vocational training and capital investment, making it critical for India to scale this sector.
“Domestic demand is still not deep or premium enough to absorb large-scale production profitably,” said Ajay Sahai, director general and CEO at the Federation of Indian Export Organisation, the apex body of trade promotion organizations, set up by India’s ministry of commerce. “The domestic market focus should not come at the cost of export ambition. The long-term growth and employment potential of India’s labour-intensive manufacturing sector lies in becoming globally competitive,” he added.
The UK template
The challenge is not just the domestic market. For Indian manufacturers to compete for business in other developed economies in Europe is not an easy segue. Multiple small orders are more expensive to produce than one mass order for the US.
“There are so many countries and brands in Europe. And the population in each country is much smaller than the 300 million in the US,” said Raymond’s Agarwal. “For a thin margin business like ours, with more complexities, cost is going to inevitably become higher. That is why we love to supply to the US market,” he added.
According to Sahai, the gestation period for meaningful results from market diversification can range from 18 months to three years, depending on sectoral readiness and policy support. In addition, experts said, India will be competing with many countries that are also looking to diversify away from the US due to high tariffs. So, potential clients have a lot more choice, and may further squeeze margins
India will be competing with many countries that are also looking to diversify away from the US due to high tariffs. Potential clients have a lot more choice, and may further squeeze margins.
“The problem is that, unlike China, India is less integrated into different economies. In the short term, it is going to be hard to figure out what the alternative markets are that we can target. Market development, forming business relationships, and being chosen as a preferred supplier is hard,” said Rohit Kumar, founding partner, Quantum Hub, a New Delhi-based public policy consulting firm.
Experts believe that India’s Free Trade Agreement with the UK provides an excellent template for India to start opening up its economy to the developed world in a graded manner and start competing on the global stage more aggressively. In July, India and the UK sealed a trade deal eliminating tariffs on products ranging from cars to alcohol. Due to the agreement, Indian goods, including textiles, jewellery, agricultural products, and engineering goods, would get better access in the UK market.
“Opening the economy is a need of the hour. You are the 4th largest economy in the world, and if you don’t integrate with the global economy, you will suffer,” said Vivek Mishra, deputy director of Strategic Studies Programme at the Observer Research Foundation. “You have a disruptor in President Trump, and he wants some sectors to be opened immediately. That is what is causing a problem.”
