“Megaquake” and the subsequent tsunami could cause up to 298,000 deaths and damage in Japan, which would cost up to $ 2 trillion, the government said on Monday in a new estimate. The warning is governed by the size of 7.1 increases in southern Japan, which in 2024 injured 14 people. The Japanese government also stated that it is likely that in the likely “megaquake”, 1.23 million evacuated or 10 % of their overall population will probably see.
Japan issued its first consultancy in August 2024 on a potential “megaquake” along Nankai Tung, 900 kilometers of underwater mistakes ranging from Shizuoka to Kyushh. Megaquake rules were developed after a devastating earthquake, tsunami and fukushima in 2011.
Tokyo’s urgent urgent stems from the volatile tectonic activity of the riverbed, where, under the barreluction of the Eurasian plates, it submits a Philippine sea plate and stores energy capable of released by the earthquake up to 9.1.
Why is Tokyo afraid of megaquake?
According to the Japanese government estimates, the riverbed nankoi has 70-80% probability that over the next 30 years will create an earthquake of 8-9.
Historical patterns show how it repeats every 100–200 years, with the last main event in 1946.
Ruptura could trigger a tsunami that reached 30-34 meters in minutes, destroying coastal prefectures like Shizuoka, Kochi and Wakayama.
Updated projection Tokyo – discouraged from a prognosis of 323,000 deaths of 2014 – now predicts 215,000 deaths per tsunami, 73,000 of collapse and 9,000 of fires.
What makes nankai tung so dangerous?
The tectonic nankai trunk, accumulated for centuries, has been a threat due to its potential for sequential megaquake.
Research of Tohoku and Kyoto University warns that an earthquake of 7+ size increases here the probability of a subsequent tremor 100-3,600 times higher than usual within one week.
800 kilometers (500 kilometers) underwater ditches run from Shizuoka, west of Tokyo, to the southern tip of Kyushho.
It is a place where the Philippine oceanic tectonic album “subduction” – or slowly slips – under the continental plate, which Japan sits on top.
The plates were stuck as they move and stored a huge amount of energy that is released when they relax, causing a potentially massive earthquake.
Japan: The nation on the edge
Japanese trauma from the 2011 Tōhok earthquake – which killed 18,000 and launched a nuclear crisis Fukushima – is located large. An earthquake of 9 in 2011, which caused a devastating tsunami and melts the triple reactor in a nuclear power plant in northeast Japan killed more than 15,000 people.
While progress in early warning systems offer some assurance, the extent of the nankai disaster could cover the previous calamities. As the seismologist of the University of Tokyo Naoshi Hirata warns: “Time of readiness is now – not when the country begins to shake.”
(Tagstotranslate) Japanese government
