Isaias poses a risk to US energy output in Category 2 power | Today’s news
The first Atlantic hurricane of the season is forecast to reach the Gulf Coast on Friday, threatening damaging winds, flooding and potential disruptions to power generation after an otherwise quiet storm season in the region.
Tropical Storm Isaias is expected to strengthen into a powerful Category 2 hurricane in the coming days with top winds of 110 mph, the US National Hurricane Center said at 11 a.m. in New York. The current forecast places the storm east of major oil rigs and pipelines off the coast of Louisiana and Texas.
This track is based in part on guidance from newer AI storm models. But more conventional models, usually based on physics equations, showed the system heading toward eastern Louisiana, said Brian McNoldy, a hurricane researcher at the University of Miami. This trajectory would move the storm closer to energy assets near New Orleans.
“There’s a little bit of wiggle room,” McNoldy said.
Risk modeler Chuck Watson of Enki Research said in a blog post Wednesday morning that effects from Isaias could spread east to Pensacola, Fla., and Eglin Air Force Base in the West Florida belt before the storm breaks down. If that happens, Watson said the potential damage and economic impact could exceed $6 billion.
The storm is poised to undergo rapid intensification over the next day as it moves through near-record warm water and moist air. Although the storm could weaken again before making landfall, NHC forecaster Eric Blake wrote Wednesday that it will likely grow and put more communities in the path of damaging winds and rain.
Isaias comes at an uncertain time for oil markets. Amid tensions over the war in Iran, there is little margin to cut production of diesel, the tractor fuel used by trucks, trains, industry and for heating. A westward shift could bring more offshore production and Gulf Coast energy infrastructure into the storm’s path.
As of late Wednesday morning, hurricane and storm surge warnings were in place from Mississippi to Florida. Up to 7 feet of water could push inland at high tide, the center said.
Chevron Corp. is preemptively evacuating non-essential personnel from its platforms in the Persian Gulf. No changes to production or operations are expected at this time, the company said.
Roughly 9.24% of Gulf oil production and 3.36% of natural gas production were shut in Tuesday ahead of the storm, according to data released by the federal Marine Minerals Administration.
Forecasters warned that the risk of damaging winds is rising along the Florida Panhandle, southern Alabama and Mississippi. The heavy rains are expected to last for miles, bringing the threat of urban flooding and isolated rivers across the southeastern US.
As of Wednesday morning, Isaias was located 540 miles south-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River. It is expected to become the Atlantic’s first hurricane of the season by Thursday — a milestone normally reached in the second week of August.
This year’s Atlantic season has fallen well short of the usual pace, with eight named storms, none of which have become hurricanes. By early October, the average season typically produced about 11 named storms, including five hurricanes and two major hurricanes.
Strengthening El Niño conditions increased wind shear, which helped suppress activity across the basin. Shear occurs when the wind changes speed or direction at different altitudes, disrupting the structure of the storm.
With assistance from Brian K. Sullivan, Lucia Kassai, Joe Wertz, and Mary Hui.
This article was generated from an automated news agency source without text modification.
