US President Donald Trump indicated “regime change” in Iran just hours after Defense Minister Pete HegSeth said on Sunday, “This mission (the US attacks Iranian nuclear places) was not and was not about changing the regime.”
During the conflict of the Iranian-Israeli conflict, the idea of killing the highest leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei also appeared. It was said that Trump vetoed the Israeli plan to kill the Iranian Supreme Leader, but the US President later claimed that Khamenei was an “easy goal” but would not be killed “at least for now”.
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This left the door open for discussion about what President Trump means “changing the regime”.
Meanwhile, Israel, which is contrary to Iran, did not rule out killing Khamenei. Last week, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said about Khamene: “This man should absolutely not exist.”
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What is the change of regime?
Cambridge Dictionary defines a “regime change” as a complete change in government, especially for violence.
Meanwhile, Britannica says that the change of regime refers to the overthrow of a government considered by illegitimate external force and its replacement with a new government according to ideas or interests supported by this force.
Simply put, changing the regime means creating a new government.
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When is the regime change in Iran?
In the case of Iran, the regime would require Israel or the US to mean the character to replace Khamenei and send soldiers to the country, said Trita Parsi, executive vice president of Quincy Institute in Washington, DC, CNN.
The delay in selecting the new highest leader could support another possibility of changing the regime in Iran.
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Iranian “unique” Islamic regime
The Iranian government is a unique hybrid system that has elements of theocracy and the Republic.
The highest leader is at the peak of the Iranian power structure. He is “a guardian lawyer who is effectively an Iranian leader of life,” the Council explained to foreign relations. The President is the second highest official in Iran.
In particular, Khamenei, 86 -year -old clergy, ruled Iran for more than 35 years as his highest authority and rose to power ten years after the 1979 Islamic Revolution overthrew the monarch supported by the US.
So what happens when Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei die? Will his death lead to change the regime?
A new highest leader will be selected
Khamenei can be replaced by a new leader, but the change in the regime itself is likely to cause unrest in the Islamic Republic.
Choosing a leader in time does not necessarily lead to a “change of regime” in Iran.
After hitting us in Iran in Iran, the New York Times, quoting resources, he said that Khamenei chose three successors as his replacement if military commanders die in Israel’s strokes.
But the US is reportedly worried that Iran could be “someone worse than Khamenei,” said the source of New York Post.
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But what if the successor is not selected in time?
Experts reportedly stated that if the highest leader is killed and the custody council delayed the naming of the successor, the risk of instability could grow.
Parsi from the Quincy Institute in Washington also warned that “Khamenei potential potential killing is a complete collapse of the regime”.
Risks of changing regime in Iran 2 points
One possible scenarios are various Iranian ethnic groups competing for power after Khamenei’s death.
Experts say that any attempt to change the regime in Iranian risks that will collapse completely to the state – “A scenario that could sort out Iran and send shock waves in the Middle East,” CNN said.
Previously, The Telegraph said Khamenei’s death could create a vacuum in the heart of the government that could trigger internal disputes and civil unrest.
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This is because Khamenei’s death is likely to create opportunities for Iranian groups of ethnic minorities to increase. News suggest that separatist groups that have long opposed the Republic of Islamic can try to use what they can see as an opportunity.
This could “potentially ignite local conflicts that could be spirals into a broader civil war.”
If the Iranian regime falls, “there would be support for ethnic separatist groups Israelis and perhaps the US,” Parsi said. This would lead to a situation where the remnants of the state will be consumed by combat separatists.
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Another option is “military intervention”, which “rarely leads to democratization”, said CNN Hamed Mousavi, associate professor of international relations in Tehran.
“The military factions that could take over were to take over are” there will be no type of regime that the US could mean, “Parsi said.
“It is unlikely that they will look for diplomatic routes with Israel or the US, but they could attract more Hawkish approach that sees the possession of a nuclear bomb as the only discouraging means for further attacks,” Parsi said.
(Tagstotranslate) Iran
