A wave of targeted attacks in Iran has killed top leaders, including security chief Ali Larijani and Basij commander Gholamreza Soleimani. And newly appointed Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is out of the public eye. Analysts cited by The New York Post say hardline IRGC commanders now hold real power and are shaping Iran’s leadership amid growing political and military turmoil.
This shift reflects a broader trend of Iran’s political institutions being overshadowed by military influence.
Here’s who really leads Iran as the country’s leadership faces unprecedented turmoil.
Yigal Carmon, president of the Middle East Media Research Institute in Israel, said according to The Post that potential successors will need to align closely with the military establishment: “They need someone who will go with them, who will move with them, who will work with them.” He added: “He’s not competing with them. He’s going to work with them.”
Successors: Spotlight on hardliners
Sadiq Larijani, Ali Larijani’s brother, has emerged as the leading contender, according to a report by The Post.
Janatan Sayeh, an Iran analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said, “Sadiq would be a likely candidate,” referring to his administrative position and role in Iran’s advisory bodies.
Another possible contender is said to be Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, known for his strong ties to the IRGC and influence within the Iranian political system.
With leadership repeatedly targeted and succession unclear, Iran faces growing uncertainty. Analysts believe the IRGC will play a decisive role in shaping the country’s next leadership and are likely to strengthen a hard line amid ongoing tensions with the US and Israel.
