Although Iran continues to use drones and missiles to attack Israeli infrastructure and US facilities in West Asia, most of its ballistic missiles are “combat ineffective” and would not be able to accomplish their intended missions even if half of the launchers remained “intact,” a report by the US think tank Institute of the Study of War said on Saturday.
U.S. intelligence assessments have found that 50 percent of Iran’s rocket launchers are still intact, but the launcher becomes combat ineffective, even if it has suffered no damage, when it cannot accomplish its assigned mission, the report said.
The report said that Iran’s medium-range ballistic missile forces had been “significantly degraded” while short-range forces were conducting attacks at a steady pace, the report said: “An accurate assessment of Iran’s missile threat requires distinguishing between different types of missiles. The combined force has rendered many of Iran’s missile launchers ineffective in combat, but it is not entirely clear whether these are medium-range or short-range launchers. The launchers are interchangeable between the systems medium- and short-range … The rate of fire of Iranian missiles indicates that Iran’s medium-range ballistic missile force has been significantly degraded.’
“The short-range ballistic missile force continues to attack at a steady rate, but the status of the short-range missiles remains unclear,” it added.
The expert group further noted that sustained US-Israeli attacks since February 28 had created “pervasive fear” among Iranian forces, contributing to a decline in missile launches since March 20. The report also claimed that there were recruitment and retention problems among Iran’s armed forces.
The think tank wrote: “US-Israeli strikes, particularly decapitation strikes, have also created a pervasive fear that may cause Iranian forces to prioritize their survival and disable their ability to carry out their assigned mission…Iranian missile fire directed at Israel has steadily declined since the start of the war. Iran has fired an average of only a few missiles per short salvo at Israel since March per short-range salvo of 20.” U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said on March 31 that the airstrikes by the combined force had worsened the morale of the Iranian military and even led to “widespread desertions, shortages of key personnel, and frustration among senior leaders.” Iranian forces also appear to be struggling with recruitment and retention.”
The institute noted that Iran’s ability to restock drones and missiles has deteriorated.
“The US-Israeli campaign cemented the operational success of rendering the launchers combat ineffective and destroying missile stockpiles by targeting Iran’s defense industrial base extensively. Strikes at these sites will make it difficult for Iran to renew its missile and drone program in the long term. Iran retains an unclear number of missiles and drones, the ability to attack Iran’s industrial sites, but continued attacks on Iranian warehouses to restore these stocks Iran has also used a significant portion of its weapons stockpile in attacks on Israel and the Persian Gulf since the beginning of the war,” the report said.
Meanwhile, Iranian and allied forces have launched “Wave 93” of their ongoing retaliatory campaigns targeting key areas of the Israeli military, according to state broadcaster Press TV. The strikes signal a remarkable escalation of the regional conflict. Citing a statement from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Press TV said the final phase of “Operation True Promise 4” was launched on Friday afternoon.
