Iran’s $23 billion oil cushion: Can Trump’s sanctions force Tehran to back down? | Today’s news
President Donald Trump’s economic pressure on Iran has received far less attention than his military strikes, even though senior U.S. officials believe the economic measures could ultimately hurt the Iranian regime more than the bombs.
“The Iranians want to stop bombing and they want money,” a senior administration official said, according to Axios. “But it’s almost in reverse. They really want the money first.”
US intelligence and several open reports indicate that Iran is currently facing a growing economic crisis, including an acute shortage of gasoline.
“Intelligence notes that the Iranians are complaining that they cannot pay their fighters,” another official said. “Why? Because of financial pressures. Because of what (Treasury Minister) Scott Bessent is doing.”
“They are at risk of attacks on banks. There is a shortage of petrol in this giant oil-rich country,” the official added. “They fear the Treasury Department more than the War Department.”
The Trump administration plans to expand its maximum pressure tactics against Iran, sanctioning more than 1,000 individuals, ships and aircraft linked to its oil trade, financial networks, arms purchases and shipping operations.
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Regarding the president’s motives, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told Axios that Trump “prefers a diplomatic solution, but continues to reserve all options if Iran continues terrorist activities in the Strait of Hormuz or against allies.”
“Coupled with successful sanctions that have crippled Iran’s economy and 13 consecutive days of strikes against military targets in response to their repeated aggression, Iran would be wise to work towards a negotiated agreement,” she said. “Otherwise they know what will happen.
But can sanctions really make Iran back down?
Iran’s oil income gives it some room to resist US pressure. According to Brett Erickson of Obsidian Risk Advisors, the country earned an estimated $23 billion from oil in the first half of the year, more than it had budgeted for.
That raises doubts about whether Trump’s military and economic pressure will be enough to get Tehran to accept his demands.
“Economic warfare is a fundamentally flawed approach to the Iran war,” Erickson wrote on Monday X.
How did Iran react?
Sanctions and blockades should not be used to scare the Iranian people, Vice President Mohammadreza Aref said on Tuesday.
“Our people are resilient and can endure. Of course it will cost something, and that is natural, but people must not be intimidated by sanctions or blockades,” he said.
Aref said Iran was trying to resolve disputes through dialogue, but would fight back if war were to resume.
US suspends strikes against Iran
Trump, who over the weekend suspended US strikes against Iran after 13 consecutive days of attacks, said on Monday that Tehran had requested a meeting to discuss the deal. Iran has denied the claims.
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However, both sides are negotiating with mediators led by Oman, Qatar and Pakistan. A key part of the talks is a proposal that would give Iran and Oman greater control over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, along with the ability to earn revenue from it. Iran is also seeking assurances that the US will not attack it again, along with financial relief through the release of frozen assets and an end to US sanctions.
Trump, meanwhile, has been reluctant to reward Iran for disrupting traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and is demanding that Tehran give up the nuclear material it still has.
