On April 13, Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf shared a screenshot of current gasoline prices at gas stations in Washington DC near the White House. The social media post was a direct mockery of America.
The speaker of Iran’s parliament suggested that the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would make those prices look cheap in the near future. “Enjoy the current pump readings. With the so-called ‘lockdown’ you’ll soon be nostalgic for $4-$5 gas,” he wrote.
Read also | Iran War News LIVE: What does the naval blockade mean? Ships will stop moving in Hormuz
The post quickly went viral, reaching 20,000 views in just 7 hours. The “equation” in the post attracted attention. Being equally clueless, we asked Grok to explain the mathematical-looking formula.
According to the AI assistant, this is not a standard formula from any economics or mathematics textbook. It’s pseudo-mathematical notation, disguised symbolism meant to sound sophisticated or go viral as a meme.
The point is to say that oil price disruptions are non-linear. According to the pseudo-mathematical formula, oil prices are rising much faster than a direct calculation would suggest.
Reasons include second-order effects such as panic buying, supply chain disruptions, tanker diversions and market speculation. All of these reasons pile up on top of the original supply shock.
Read also | What does the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz mean?
The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz means that the change is greater than zero if even a small amount of oil is dampened.
Invented “price impact” feature. If you use it twice, once for the initial shock, then again for the second order effects, it produces a much worse result than just once.
Simply put, if Iran blocks the strait even a little bit, fuel prices will not only go up, they will go up fast. The $4-5 per gallon prices shown on the Google Maps screenshot will soon look like the “good old days”.
Strait of Hormuz
At the same time, Iran’s claim is not completely unfounded. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical point for about 20% of global oil supplies. Any permanent blockade would likely cause sharp, non-linear price spikes.
However, any such move by Iran would also trigger a strong and swift military response from the United States and its allies in the Persian Gulf. This would quickly change the situation on the ground.
Read also | Oil prices jumped on the Strait of Hormuz blockade after US-Iran talks failed
India imports a substantial part of its oil from the Persian Gulf region. Any disruption in the Strait of Hormuz would directly affect India’s fuel prices and energy security.
The Indian rupee would also face pressure if global oil prices rise sharply. Indian politicians and the oil ministry will be watching these developments closely.
Reaction on social networks
Critics called it “false math” in responses. Many social media users also pointed out the irony. Iran’s own economy has suffered far more severely than the US from sanctions and oil-related disruptions.
“Bro, the average salary in Iran today is $100 and a kg of beef costs $15 there. Don’t worry about it. Americans would definitely survive a $2 price hike where 10% of its people are millionaires,” wrote one.
“By closing the internet and the Strait of Hormuz, the Islamic Republic thinks it can hold Iranians and the world economy hostage. Instead, the resulting unemployment, inflation and tsunami of protests will soon destroy the last remnants of the Khamenei regime,” another user wrote.
Another user wrote: “A regime that can’t keep its generals alive is worried about US gas prices…”
“What if I stop driving? I have other options. But you go and start working the sand because without oil you have nothing!” came from another.
