As US President Donald Trump threatened to “strike and destroy their various POWER PLANTS, STARTING WITH THE BIGGEST ONE” if Iran did not reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, attention shifted to a critical question at the heart of the escalating conflict: how resilient is Iran’s energy grid to sustained military attack?
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The warning issued on Truth Social marks a sharp escalation in the war, now in its fourth week, which began on February 28 with coordinated US and Israeli attacks on Iranian targets. Tehran responded by warning that the strait would be closed “completely” if its energy infrastructure was attacked, while Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian said “delirious threats on the battlefield” would only strengthen national unity and that the waterway “is open to all except those who violate our soil”.
Why energy infrastructure has become a strategic goal
In the case of Iran, the electricity grid is deeply connected to industrial production, water desalination and digital networks, making it a high-value target.
Iranian officials have already indicated that any such attack would trigger retaliation against “all energy, information technology and desalination infrastructure” associated with the US and its allies in the region, signaling a potential extension of the conflict to critical civilian systems.
A system built on thermal dominance
Iran’s electricity grid remains overwhelmingly dependent on heat generation. According to Iran’s Ministry of Energy, more than 95% of its electricity is generated by gas and oil plants, with hydropower contributing less than 5% in practice due to reservoir constraints.
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Iran operates around 130 thermal power plants with a combined capacity of approximately 78,000 megawatts. About 20 plants exceed 1,000 megawatts, while some exceed 2,000 megawatts, forming the backbone of the national supply.
Key energy nodes in Iran and structural distribution
The main facilities include the Damavand power plant, which produces roughly 2,900 megawatts, along with the Neka and Rajaei power plants, which together anchor supplies in northern and central Iran. The Tehran area is supported by a cluster of large installations, supplemented by smaller urban power stations that provide additional grid stability.
This geographic dispersion ensures that no single facility is solely responsible for electricity supplies, complicating attempts to cripple the system with targeted strikes.
Hard targets, limited strategic payoff
Despite their strategic importance, large power plants are difficult to decommission. Facilities like Damavand cover large areas with multiple generating units and redundant systems that require sustained and coordinated attacks.
Even so, the strategic return may be limited. Destroying Iran’s largest power plant would remove only about 3-4% of total capacity, which would be insufficient to trigger a nationwide blackout and potentially offset by load redistribution or restrictions on electricity exports.
A decentralized network built for resilience
Iran’s grid is highly decentralized and includes more than 133,000 kilometers of transmission lines and more than 1.3 million kilometers if distribution networks are included. It is supported by hundreds of thousands of transformers and thousands of substations.
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While substations are more vulnerable and can cause localized outages, they are also easier to repair. Recent disruptions in western Tehran and Karaji caused temporary blackouts but were resolved within hours, demonstrating the system’s resilience.
Could Iran be plunged into darkness?
A nationwide blackout seems unlikely through conventional strikes alone. The scattered nature of Iran’s generation and transmission grid means that damage would likely result in localized and temporary disruptions rather than systemic collapse.
However, sustained attacks targeting multiple nodes—including substations, fuel chains, and control systems—could reduce reliability over time and cause a cumulative burden.
Global Stakes: Oil, Markets, and War Expansion
The stakes go far beyond Iran. Brent crude climbed to around $114 a barrel, with U.S. crude hovering near $100, reflecting sharp volatility amid escalating tensions. Analysts, including those at Goldman Sachs, have warned that higher energy prices could persist for years if the disruption continues.
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The human cost is also mounting, with over 1,500 reported dead in Iran, over 1,000 in Lebanon, and casualties reported in Israel and among US personnel.
International interest is rising. French President Emmanuel Macron has called for freedom of navigation in Hormuz, while more than 20 countries – including the UK, Germany, Japan and Canada – have expressed their readiness to support safe sea crossings.
