Indonesian rain to ease toxic haze in Singapore, Malaysia | Today’s news

(Bloomberg) — Indonesia is bracing for more consistent rain next month to provide relief from forest fires that have spewed toxic smoke across Singapore and Malaysia, even as widespread downpours are still weeks away.

Rainfall has increased in Indonesia in recent days, helping to replenish soil moisture after months of severe El Niño-induced drought, according to weather data. While this offers some relief, heavier rain is not expected until at least early December in areas such as Kalimantan, where the fires have raged and where most of the remaining fire hotspots are located.

Suffocating haze from Indonesia’s worst fire season in years blanketed local cities and drifted across neighboring countries for weeks, closing schools, increasing demand for air purifiers and straining diplomatic relations. Singapore’s foreign minister visited Jakarta this week to ease escalating tensions, with the two countries agreeing to form a joint forest fire task force.

Indonesia has received less than a quarter of normal rainfall since June, according to Atmospheric G2, making the landscape parched and fires that are often linked to agricultural practices more difficult to control. Nearly 13,500 hotspots have been detected nationwide so far this month, the most since 2015, on top of high numbers in September and August, the Forest Department’s SiPongi platform shows.

“Significant precipitation should fall by November, generally increase further in December and remain significant until early 2027,” said Andreas Vallgren, Ignitia’s chief scientific officer for weather research. “Whether this is sufficient to extinguish existing fires, particularly in peatlands, will depend on how consistently the rainfall hits the affected areas.”

In recent weeks, Kuala Lumpur and Singapore have often topped the list of the world’s most polluted cities, according to IQAir data. The city-state warned of possible legal action against companies suspected of illegal burning, as more than 1,000 people protested in central Jakarta on Wednesday against the government’s handling of the fires.

Indonesian agricultural activity was affected. Smog from forest fires is disrupting the activity of weevils that pollinate oil palms in the world’s largest grower, while haze is slowing harvests on land owned by major producer SD Guthrie Bhd. in Kalimantan and Sumatra and may have a negative effect on productivity.

The combination of fires and dry weather prompted the Indonesian Palm Oil Association to cut production estimates for next year to 56.6 million tonnes, a two-year low, said M. Hadi Sugeng Wahyudiono, secretary general of the industry group. This compares with an earlier forecast of 59 million tonnes.

Still, forecasts point to an improvement in conditions. Near-normal rainfall is expected next month, which will help prevent new fires and limit the spread of existing fires, according to startup Plannette AI. “Rain will moderate fires in Borneo and Sumatra until December,” said CEO and founder Hansi Singh.

Indonesian authorities hope the fire crisis will be resolved by November, said Budi Harsoyo, a senior official at the country’s national meteorological agency, known as BMKG. Satellite tracking suggests hotspot development in the three provinces most affected by the fires may be receding, he added.

In some parts of South Sumatra, Central Kalimantan and South Kalimantan, there is an increasing chance that monthly rainfall will exceed 300 millimeters in December, the BMKG said this week. According to the outlook of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, precipitation should accelerate in the first week of the month.

One risk with the wildcard, Ignitia’s Vallgren said, is that lingering fires and smoke can limit precipitation because smog blocks the sun’s rays and inhibits the convective process that forms storms and showers.

History offers a cautionary tale. In 1997, fires that had been burning and growing during that year’s extended dry season were briefly suppressed when the rains finally arrived in December, weeks later than usual, but reignited in early 1998 when the rainy season ended prematurely due to a persistent El Niño.

“There’s a feedback loop — more fires mean more smoke, which can suppress precipitation, which in turn can slow down precipitation,” Vallgren said. On the other hand, “if there are any heavy precipitation events, they help clear the air to some extent, which helps to start more frequent thunderstorms.”

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