India’s crude oil imports from Russia strengthened in the first half of October, reversing a three-month drop in arrivals seen between July and September, when refineries were back at full capacity to meet holiday demand, according to ship-tracking data.
Imports from Russia fell from more than 2 million barrels per day in June to 1.6 million barrels per day in September.
But tanker tracking data for early October suggest a recovery: shipments of Urals and other Russian grades to India have picked up pace, boosted by renewed discounts amid weak demand in western markets and shipping flexibility.
Preliminary data from global trade analytics firm Kpler showed October imports tracking at around 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd), up around 250,000 bpd from the previous month (although figures for the current month are subject to revision).
The figures are for the period before US President Donald Trump announced on October 15 that Prime Minister Narendra Modi had agreed to freeze Russian oil imports. However, External Affairs Ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said he was not aware of any such phone conversation.
‘pressure tactics’
Sumit Ritolia, senior research analyst (Refining & Modelling) at Kpler, believes Trump’s statement was more likely a pressure tactic linked to trade negotiations rather than a reflection of an imminent policy change.
“Russian barrels remain deeply embedded in India’s energy system for economic, contractual and strategic reasons,” he said.
Indian refiners also said they have not yet been asked by the government to stop importing Russian oil.
India decided to buy discounted Russian oil after Western countries imposed sanctions on Moscow and avoided its supplies due to its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. As a result, Russia’s share of total oil imports in 2019-20 (FY20) increased from just 1.7% to 40% in 2023-24, making it the largest oil supplier.
In the first half of October, Russia continued to enjoy this status. Iraq was the second largest oil supplier to India at around 1.01 million barrels per day, followed by Saudi Arabia at 8,30,000 barrels per day. The US overtook the UAE to become the fourth largest supplier to India at 647,000 barrels per day. The UAE delivered 394,000 bpd, according to Kpler.
Vital to India
Mr Ritolia said Russian oil remains structurally crucial to India, accounting for roughly 34% of its total imports and offering compelling discounts too deep for refiners to ignore.
“There was a lot of talk about a dip in imports during July-September. This was due less to tariff concerns and more to seasonal factors, especially increased maintenance at PSU refineries like MRPL, CPCL and BORL,” he said.
In fact, most contracts for early September deliveries were made 6-10 weeks in advance, meaning deals were largely closed before 31 July. So the declines in July to September were mostly due to refiners processing less oil in light of maintenance schedules.
Even with narrower discounts than in 2023, Russian barrels remain one of the most economical feedstocks available to Indian refiners, thanks to landing discounts and high GPW (Gross Product Worth) margins from grades like Ural.
Discounts average between $3.5-$5 per barrel, down from $1.5-$2 in July/August.
Replacing Russian oil is not difficult as more barrels could flow from the Middle East, Latin America and the US, similar to India before 2022.
Indian refineries can process different types of crude oil, so the technical limitation is minimal.
But whether New Delhi is ready to make that shift is another matter, he said. “The reality is that cutting Russian imports would be difficult, expensive and risky.”
Replacement would require rapid scaling from multiple suppliers with higher costs (shipping, weaker discounts). If margins squeeze or retail prices rise, the result could be inflation, political backlash and weaker refinery profitability.
He believes that the refinery will not leave a dollar on the table unless the government orders it to do so – just as it did with Iran’s barrels. While there has been a stronger push to diversify, contracts for Russian oil are typically signed 6-10 weeks before arrival. Convert everything that takes time. In practice, Indian refiners are gradually expanding their baskets, not to replace Russia in the short term, but to increase energy security, continuity and flexibility.
India consistently pursues an independent foreign and energy policy, balancing economic interests with diplomatic relations. A sudden shift away from Russian oil would undermine its energy security strategy and is unlikely unless formal sanctions – similar to those on Iran or Venezuela – are imposed.
“At this stage, it is unlikely that India will make structural cuts purely to satisfy political pressure from the US and the EU. If pressure from Washington intensifies, Indian refineries could make a symbolic reduction – on the order of 100,000 to 200,000 bpd – to demonstrate diversification and appease Western partners. However, these cuts would likely be symbolic rather than transformational,” he added.
Importing higher volumes from the US to appease Trump is an option, but growth is limited to around 400,000 to 500,000 bpd. This is because US grades face both logistical disadvantages and economic and compatibility issues with Indian refining systems.
Kpler data shows India’s US oil imports to average 310,000 bpd in 2025, up from 199,000 bpd in 2024, and reach an annual high of around 500,000 bpd (expected in October).
Published – 17 October 2025 15:05 IST
