According to Indian Association for the Study of Population (IASP) general secretary Anil Chandran, India’s population is expected to stabilize near 1.8 or 1.9 billion by 2080 with the current replacement level at 1.9.
In an interview with PTI, Chandran noted that India is going through a “rapid demographic transition”, with the birth rate set to decline sharply over the past 20 years. He added: “In 2000 our TFR was 3.5 and today it’s 1.9. That’s a drastic drop.”
According to Chandran, all estimates show that India’s peak population will remain below 2 billion and is expected to peak around 1.8-1.9 billion by 2080, when growth stabilizes.
Are Indians having fewer children?
According to the official, the decline in fertility is “primarily” due to increased levels of development and education.
“Increased female literacy directly shaped marriage and childbearing decisions, leading to smaller families. Greater use of contraception and wider access to birth control further accelerated this decline,” he said.
“Couples today are better informed and have more control over when and how many children to have,” Chandran added.
He further added that many choose to marry later in life and opt for growth in economic opportunities, with women in particular increasingly pursuing careers, which also has a significant impact on reproductive decisions.
“Development is inversely proportional to the birth rate”
“Development is inversely proportional to the birth rate. Illiterate groups still have a fertility level above three, but among the educated, the TFR is between 1.5 and 1.8,” he said.
Citing the example of Kerala, Chandran said the state reached reproductive fertility level (2.1) between 1987 and 1989 and now has a TFR of around 1.5.
The birth rate in West Bengal also saw a sharp decline. According to the Sample Registration System (SRS) Statistic Report 2023, the state’s TFR fell to 1.3, from 1.7 in 2013—a drop of nearly 18 percent and well below the replacement level of 2.1. West Bengal now ranks among the lowest in the country, at par with Tamil Nadu and just above Delhi, recording the lowest urban TFR and the second lowest rural TFR nationally, he said.
Declining birth rate vs. improved health care presents challenges
The demographer noted that while the birth rate is falling, life expectancy is still rising thanks to improvements in health care.
“More people are living past 60 and this brings new challenges in aged care, especially as younger people migrate for work,” he said, adding that solutions such as day care facilities for the elderly are increasingly being discussed.
Founded in 1971 and comprising about 1,100 demographers and population scientists, the IASP regularly discusses these issues with the support of bodies such as UNFPA, the Population Council and the Population Foundation of India.
