According to a World Trade Organization (WTO) report, this policy change contributed to a 29% drop in global rice prices by 2025 and helped cool food inflation – especially in African and Asian countries such as Senegal, Benin and Bangladesh, which are heavily dependent on Indian rice.
The WTO report, published on November 7, cited the International Grains Council’s Cereals and Oilseeds Index (GOI) to note that overall global food prices – including rice and other foods – fell by 2% year-on-year in 2025 and by 39% from their peak in 2022, led by an easing in cereal prices following India’s turnaround.
Mint experts, speaking to the confirmed WTO findings, said the timing of India’s move was crucial as global grain prices were under pressure from the lingering effects of the Ukraine conflict and high energy prices.
Between 2022 and 2023, New Delhi introduced several export restrictions to curb inflation – from a 20% duty on milled, unmilled and parboiled rice to bans on broken and non-basmati white rice, along with a minimum export price for basmati.
Between September 2024 and March 2025, these measures were gradually eased and then completely lifted.
After the cancellation, India’s rice exports to 172 countries surged to 20.1 million tonnes worth around $12.95 billion in FY25, according to Commerce Department data. In FY24, it was 16.35 million tonnes.
The scale of the policy’s impact underscores India’s weight in global rice supply. According to Vijay Setia, director of Chaman Lal Setia Exports Ltd and former president of the All India Rice Exporters’ Association (Airea), New Delhi accounts for nearly 45% of the world’s rice exports and any policy change here directly affects global food prices.
“The easing of export barriers by major suppliers such as India and improved food aid commitments by donor countries have together helped to cool food markets,” the WTO said.
According to the international trade body, the total value of global food aid under the Food Aid Convention reached almost $7.9 billion in 2023, exceeding minimum donor country commitments.
The US remained the largest contributor at $3 billion per year, followed by the European Union, Japan and Canada. India, although not a signatory to the convention, contributed indirectly by freeing up export volumes that reached food-scarce markets through private and humanitarian channels.
However, the WTO report warned that risks to global food price stability remain, citing climate variability, disruption to shipping and the potential for the resumption of export controls in some producer countries. It also said international food prices still remain about 15% above pre-pandemic levels, though well below record highs.
Critical intervention on the supply side
“The lifting of the export ban in India has had both a symbolic and substantive impact,” said Dattesh Parulekar, assistant professor of international relations at the University of Goa. “Symbolic because it showed confidence in domestic production; and substantial because it immediately added liquidity to the global rice trade and reduced import costs for vulnerable economies.”
According to Chirag Jain, partner and food industry leader, consultancy Grant Thornton Bharat, the WTO findings underscore how New Delhi’s decision has served as a major supply-side intervention, easing tensions in global markets and contributing to widespread softening of food prices, particularly in the Global South, where rice is a staple food and import dependency is high.
“This outcome is not accidental but is the result of a deliberate policy framework embedded in dynamic buffer stock management, inflation-sensitive MSP (minimum support price) operations and calibrated export controls that enable India to respond to domestic and international food security imperatives,” Jain said.
Aeria’s Setia suggests that the government should allow the Food Corporation of India (FCI) to directly export its stored grain, rather than channeling it through private players, to “make our exports more stable, profitable and responsive to global demand”.
“Such a move could help manage supply more effectively during periods of high demand while ensuring fair prices for both farmers and international buyers,” he added.
Details from the WTO report
A 31-page WTO document that reviewed the implementation of the Marrakesh Agreement on the potential negative impacts of agricultural reforms on LDCs and Net Food Importing Developing Countries (NFIDCs) said the easing of restrictions has improved the availability and affordability of staple foods for countries facing import challenges, particularly in Africa and parts of Asia.
The report highlighted that India’s action came at a critical time when LDCs and NFIDCs were struggling with high import bills and limited access to concessional financing.
The report said the change in India’s rice policy is in line with the WTO’s broader goals under the Ministerial Declaration on the Emergency Response to Food Scarcity, adopted in Geneva in 2022, which called on members to implement trade measures that are “targeted, proportionate, transparent and temporary”.
The WTO Secretariat emphasized the importance of maintaining stable food aid flows and called for transparency in line with the Nairobi Ministerial Decision on Export Competition.
The WTO Committee on Agriculture also reiterated that countries should implement export restrictions in accordance with Article 12 of the Agreement on Agriculture, which requires prior notification and consultation with affected members, particularly LDCs and food-importing countries.
She called on members to build on recent positive developments by strengthening cooperation on food security and ensuring timely sharing of market data.
Mint reported on September 24 that India, the world’s leading rice exporter, is poised to ship a record amount of the grain this season, despite major floods that damaged crops in Punjab. The IGC forecast that the country will export a record 23.4 million tonnes of rice during the 2025-26 season, up 2% from the previous year.
This growth is expected to be fueled by strong demand from African countries and renewed supply to Asian markets such as the Philippines and Malaysia.
