India downgrades monsoon forecast to 90% of normal crop risk | Today’s news

(Bloomberg) — India has cut its forecast for this year’s monsoon, a blow to farmers already struggling with higher input costs due to conflict in the Middle East.

Cumulative rainfall between June and September is likely to be 90% of the long-term average, M. Ravichandran, secretary of the Ministry of Earth Sciences, said during a press conference on Friday. The forecast has a 4% margin of error. In April, the Bureau of Meteorology predicted rains would be 92% of normal.

The drop comes as likely El Niño weather is expected to reduce rainfall activity.

The monsoon will first reach the southern tip of the country around June 1 before moving north to cover the entire subcontinent over the next four to six weeks. Hundreds of millions of farmers in India, one of the world’s largest producers of rice, sugar and cotton, depend heavily on seasonal rains to irrigate their fields.

The four-month season brings most of India’s annual rainfall and is critical to replenishing groundwater supplies and sustaining agricultural activity. The planting season has just begun.

Below-average rainfall had earlier prompted authorities to limit outgoing shipments of some agricultural commodities to ensure domestic supplies. This month, the government banned the export of sugar until September 30.

Lower-than-normal rains may also force farmers to rely more on diesel-powered irrigation pumps, raising demand for the fuel at a time when the war in Iran has already affected energy supplies. Crude oil has surged due to supply disruptions and tightening flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a key transit route for exports from the Middle East. Domestic oil companies have already raised the retail prices of gasoline and diesel this month.