The Chief Economist of the International Monetary Fund Pierre-Oolivier Gourinchas speaks during the press briefing of the “world economic outlook” of the MMF/World Bank 2025 in Washington, DC, USA, October 14, 2025. | Photo Credit: Reuters
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) in the October outlook increased Indian Indian growth projections by 20 basics points to 6.6% per year 2025, while reflecting a decline in the same intensity to 6.2% in 2026.
The IMF, who developed the justification of the revision of the ascending to India, attributed it to the transmission effect from the “strong” first quarter, which helped the new Delhi “more than compensate” the impact of US President Donald Trump triggered by the tariff regime since July. The Indian GDP in the June peak reached a maximum of 7.8% driven mainly by industries as production, services and construction. Revision down for 2026 thus considers the fading of momentum from the first quarter.
Tariff shock “smaller than originally expected”
The IMF attributed the slowdown of global growth to headwinds from “uncertainty and protectionism”. Although he said that the tariff shock is “smaller than originally announced (expected)”. “Global growth happens despite the main change of policy. Increasing tariffs and its effect has been smaller so far. It is thanks to new business trades, several exceptions and dexterity of the private sector in the redirecting chain,” said Pierre-Oolivier Gourinchas, the main economist in the IMF.
Despite the observation of the “robust” global business activities in the first quarter of the year, however, in the first quarter of the year notes that IMF in the second quarter adheres to strong growth in American imports and exports from Asia and euro area.
The chief economist explains that despite the permanent first half, the view remains “fragile” and continues to radiate the risk. “The main risk is that tariffs can further increase from renewed and unresolved trade, which, together with disruption of the supply chain, could reduce global production by 0.3%next year,” he said.
Published – October 14, 2025 17:39
