New Delhi: The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) revised its prediction of the monsoon slightly up to 106% of the long -term diameter (LPA) from 105% of the predicted 15 April. Although the difference will only be small in terms of rain volume, the magic for the farmer sector continuing good news.
“Southwest monsoon seasonal precipitation above the ground as a whole will probably be 106% of the long -term average, with a model error plus/minus 4%,” said IMD CEO Mrutyunjay Mahahahapatra.
IMD said the Heatwave waves in June are likely to be under normal in most parts of Northwest India and the adjacent regions of Central and East India.
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LPA seasonal precipitation for 1971–2020 was 87 cm. Development offers farmers a valuable opportunity to accelerate the sowing of key crops of khariffs such as rice, corn, cotton, soy, sugar cane, oil seeds and pulses, especially in rain areas where the timing is essential.
This matter assumes importance, because good rainfall would not only increase the agrarian economy, but also penetrated the building of strong demand in the countryside, which positively affects a number of sectors, including rapidly moving consumer goods (FMCG).
Above normal rain, the country will also help to improve its agricultural production and supplement the reservoirs.
Region-wise, monsoon (June to September) precipitation will most likely be above normal above the central and southern peninsula (106%LPA), normal above the northwest India (92-108%) and under normal northeast India (94%), according to IMD.
After the Keral coast hit the 24th May, eight days before normal data of June 1, followed by Mumbai and the southern states, Monsoon is likely to hit the central and northeast countries in the next three four days, Mohapatra added.
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The monsoon season is essential because it brings almost 70% of the annual precipitation of India. The agricultural sector remains highly vulnerable to the weather variability, with only about 55% pure sowing receiving water from the irrigation net and the rest depending on monsoon rains.
At the same time, agriculture represented 16% of GDP in FY24 at current prices and supports about 46% of the population.
Good rainfall will also directly improve food safety, maintain livelihood and promote economic growth.
“The monsoon seems to have arrived with a strong start and brought in several parts of the country. Excessively normal monsoon is a welcome wind for the economy in the middle of uncertain. Rural employers and rural employers and rural employers, “said economist, Deloitte, Deloitte, Deloitte, Deloitte, Deloitte, Deloitte, Deloitte, Deloitte.
Secondly, Majumdar said, better production will help reduce food prices and facilitate further pressure on inflation that drops downwards. This could, in turn, signal RBI to further alleviate monetary policy, thus increasing the growth of loans, slowing down to a multi -year minimum to 12.1%.
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However, the real impact will depend on the spatial distribution and timely collision. If the rainfall is well distributed, India can expect stronger consumption, better revenue on the farm and a more balanced recovery of growth, especially in rural and semi -abusive India, according to Deloitte.
India Reserve Bank of India (RBI), during the Committee meeting for monetary policy (MPC), which took place from 7 to 9 April, said unfavorable weather events and an increase in international agricultural commodity prices as the risks of food inflation.
“The prognosis of the early onset of southwestern monsoon 2025, associated with expectations of normal precipitation, offers farmers a valuable opportunity to speed up the sowing of key crops, such as rice, corn, cotton, soy, soy, and sugar cane.
Banking for higher normal monsoon rains set a record goal of food production of 354.64 million tonnes per 2025-26. This is 3.8% or 13 million tons more than 341.55 million tonnes of food target in 2024-25.
Some concerns
According to prof. Anjala Prakasha, clinical associate professor (Research), Indian School of Business, early arrival of the monsoon in India signals “natural rhythm and brewing warning of climate change”.
“Its unpredictable onset now underlines the urgent reality of climate change. Both the growth of global temperatures as well as irregular weather patterns, resulting in the monsoon to arrive sooner or later, which disrupts ecosystems and livelihoods,” Prakash said.
(Tagstotranslate) India meteorological ward
