As the United States and Iran continue to work toward an agreement on a framework agreement that would effectively end the war, analysts said Washington would move quickly to degrade Tehran’s military capabilities if the talks fail, Fox News reported Saturday (local time).
Retired Army Col. Seth Krummrich, a former Joint Chiefs of Staff planner and current vice president of Global Guardian, added that such a campaign would first target missile systems, naval assets and command networks before expanding to more controversial targets.
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His remarks come as U.S. and Iranian negotiators are still working on what officials call a preliminary framework agreement, essentially a one-page outline to serve as the basis for broader talks focused on the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program and possible sanctions relief. However, deep mistrust between the two sides has stalled negotiations and raised concerns about what could happen if diplomacy fails.
Not starting from scratch: Analyst
Krummrich said, “We’re not starting at zero,” adding, “We’re both starting at minus 1,000 because neither side trusts each other at all. It’s going to be a pretty tough process going forward.”
Echoing Krummrich, retired Air Force Lt. Gen. David Deptula said that if talks fail, any renewed conflict is likely to become “a contest for escalation control,” where Tehran will try to impose costs without provoking a regime that threatens retaliation, while Washington works to eliminate the Islamic Republic’s remaining influence.
Referring to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Deptula said: “The capabilities that would come into focus are those used by Iran to create coercive leverage: ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, air defense systems, naval strike assets, command and control networks, IRGC infrastructure, proxy support channels and nuclear facilities.”
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Core Iranian military remains intact: Analysts
RP Newman, a military and terrorism analyst and Marine Corps veteran, said the US had killed less than one percent of IRGC troops, adding that if talks failed, the force would still be able to conduct operations.
However, targeting the IRGC is much more complicated than eliminating the country’s top leadership, according to Krummrich, who added that it is not just a group of leaders at the top that can be killed, but an organization that has infiltrated all levels over the past 47 years.
Peace talks between the US and Iran hang in the balance
The analysts’ remarks come as US President Donald Trump has repeatedly threatened Tehran that Washington could resume bombing the Islamic Republic if talks collapse, even hinting before the recent ceasefire that the US could target Tehran’s energy infrastructure and key economic assets.
The development comes after US Secretary of State Marco Rubio expressed optimism on Friday (local time) that he would receive a response from Tehran on the latest proposal on the same day. However, the Islamic Republic only acknowledged the proposal, with its foreign ministry spokesman saying they were reviewing it.
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Earlier on Thursday, a senior US official confirmed that US forces had struck Iran’s port of Qeshm and Bandar Abbas, key sites near the Strait of Hormuz, insisting the operation did not mark a restart of war or an end to the ceasefire. The attack on one of Tehran’s oil ports came two days after the Islamic Republic fired 15 ballistic and cruise missiles at the United Arab Emirates (UAE) port of Fujairah, angering Gulf allies. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine said earlier this week that the attack did not rise to the level of a ceasefire violation, calling it a low-level strike.
Despite ongoing negotiations and a fragile ceasefire, recent military strikes and continued threats from both sides have highlighted the deep mistrust shaping the US-Iran relationship.
Key things
- Peace negotiations between the US and Iran are heavily influenced by mutual mistrust.
- If negotiations fail, the US may target Iran’s military capabilities to degrade its power.
- Military analysts stress the complexity of targeting Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
