The operation – a joint venture between the United States and Israel, codenamed Operations Epic Fury and Roaring Lion – was, by any measure, the largest air assault ever carried out by the Israeli military. It was also the culmination of a strategy that from the beginning pursued two paths at once: diplomacy and war, in parallel.
According to reports from Axios, the joint operation arose out of a two-month strategy in which Washington, D.C., simultaneously conducted nuclear negotiations with Iran while preparing for large-scale military action.
Officials quoted by Axios described the crisis as “vintage Trump — full of twists, turns, and deliberate disinformation,” with the uncertainty itself acting as a strategic tool that left Iran’s leadership exposed to what has become the largest airstrike ever carried out by the Israeli military.
Mar-a-Lago, late December: Where the plan began
The origins of Saturday’s strikes on Iran lie in a meeting between US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at Mar-a-Lago in late December, when anti-regime protests were just starting to take off in Iran, Axios reports.
Netanyahu arrived with plans for a follow-up to the previous year’s joint strikes — operations aimed primarily at Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities — tentatively slated for around May, Axios says. But within days of that meeting, the political scene inside Iran changed dramatically.
The regime’s crackdown was ferocious: thousands were killed. On Truth Social, Trump urged protesters to seize government institutions: “HELP IS ON THE WAY.”
On January 14, Trump came close to ordering strikes. He pulled back—but only publicly. In the following weeks, the Mossad director visited Washington twice. The chief of Israeli military intelligence and the IDF chief of staff followed him.
Geneva would never be enough—and Washington knew it
Even as military planning has accelerated, the Trump administration has opened a diplomatic channel. US and Iranian officials met in Oman in early February – the first direct contact since June’s 12-day war. Netanyahu hastily flew to Washington to discuss red lines and the terms under which a joint military strike would proceed if talks failed.
The administration’s two top envoys, Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, were, Axios reports, “skeptical about the chances of a deal” from the start. Still, officials emphasized that the Geneva talks were not purely performative at the start. It is said that Trump really wanted to test whether military leverage could bring about a deal on his terms. Iran’s negotiators were specifically told, Axios reports, that military strikes “would happen if we didn’t see real progress on a real deal very quickly.”
What irrevocably changed calculus was intelligence. A week before the Geneva meeting, American and Israeli planners had already identified a window: the coming Saturday, when Khamenei would routinely convene his top aides above ground in his government complex. Keeping him there—unconcerned, unsuspecting—became a strategic imperative.
Three red lines Iran will not cross
When Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff flew to Geneva on Thursday, they already knew what they would find. They went anyway. As Axios reported, the meeting served its purpose: “It kept the Iranians convinced that diplomacy was alive.”
According to officials cited by Axios, three problems proved insurmountable.
Nuclear enrichment: Washington has proposed providing Iran with free civilian nuclear fuel indefinitely if enrichment activities cease. Tehran rejected the offer. “It was big news,” one official said.
Ballistic missiles: Iranian negotiators refused to discuss missile production capabilities. One official stated, “We cannot continue to live in a world where these people not only possess missiles, but also the ability to produce 100 of them per month in perpetuity to overwhelm any potential defense.
Regional funding proxy: Iran has also refused to negotiate funding limits for allied militant groups across the Middle East.
News reports further increased mistrust. Officials claimed Iran was rebuilding nuclear facilities previously designated as destroyed and had stockpiled enriched material at Tehran’s research reactor under medical pretexts.
“They have never used the fissile material there to make even a single drug,” said one official. “It was all designed to deceive.
Axios noted that these claims could not immediately be independently verified.
Final hours: Oman’s last attempt and an unanswered question
After Geneva, Oman’s foreign minister reportedly made an emergency flight to Washington in a last-ditch effort and met with Vice President JD Vance on Friday to urge a delay. It was too late. Trump has already made up his mind.
When an Arab official asked Steve Witkoff directly on Friday whether an attack was imminent, the envoy turned away without answering.
On Saturday morning, Khamenei summoned his advisers, as American and Israeli planners had anticipated. Strikes came moments later.
“If the Iranians came to Geneva and gave Trump what he wanted, he would put the brakes on the military track,” said an Israeli intelligence official, according to Axios. “But they were arrogant and thought he wouldn’t act. They were wrong.”
