The conditions for “low -boiled, stable growth environment supported by monetary policy and fiscal stability are introduced,” Nageswarean told reporters with reference to early hints of growth in the current financial year after the Ministry published a quarterly estimate for March and the interim data FY25 6.5%.
Certainly in Q4 FY24 and 9.2% (revised) in full FY24 in Q4 FY24 and 9.2% (revised). Mint survey 22 economists said GDP growth may increase to four quarters of 6.9%to four quarters in the quarter of March.
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Nageswaren said that a stable state of growth with low inflation also leads to a record tightening of the Indian ten -year bond in the 10 -year US US Treasury. This means improving investors’ perception on the reliability of the Indian economy and a reduction in perceived risks, although India is an developing market.
“Delay”
After Covid, despite growing uncertainties due to geopolitical conflicts and business voltages, India actually keeps its growth numbers better than many advanced economies, Nageswaren stressed. His confidence in robust economic growth this year results from signals such as permanent improvement in production and production of services in April, suggesting purchase manager, year -on -year growth in April, the average hotel occupancy rate remained slightly better than in March 2025.
“So clearly, the momentum of the economy that rose in the fourth quarter (FY25) continues to the first quarter (FY26) and that’s a good sign,” Nageswaren said.
The growth of March quarter was powered by key sectors, including agriculture, production, construction, mining and services that all showed higher production during FY25 compared to FY24.
Irregular recovery
The chief economist Kotak Mahindra Bank Bhardwaj noted that the Q4 numbers were slightly beyond expectations and generally was in accordance with the government estimated, while GVA growth remained at 6.8% due to a sharp increase in net indirect taxes. It pointed out that high -frequency indicators reflect uneven recovery and sequential momentum slows from the previous quarter.
Expenditure on the final consumption of a government representing its expenses on goods and services stood on £33.03 trillion during FY25, annually by 6.4%. Household consumption or private expenses for final consumption recorded 12% of growth £202,98 trillions in FY25.
Rough creation of fixed capital, investment indicator, increased by about 7.9% per year in FY25 £98.86 trillion, higher than £91,65 trillion reported in the previous year.
During the FY25 added gross added value (GVA) – which measures the value of goods and services produced in the economy – by 6.4%, from 8.6% annual growth registered in the previous year, to make £171,87 trillion. In four neighborhoods of FY25 GVA increased by 6.5%, 5.8%, 6.5%and 6.8%.
Benign inflation, soft growth
“We expect benign inflation and soft growth will continue to provide MPC room for additional money release, with 25 BPS (basic point) in the upcoming June policy,” Bhardwaj added.
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The key highlight of FY25 data this year is a slight improvement in exports, while reducing imports has helped reduce shock due to negative pure exports. The exports increased to 6.3% in Rupee. £40.68 trillion while imports contrast by 3.7% per year £42,29 trillion.
Impact on tariff
Asking the possible impact on the June quarter of this year due to the mutual tariffs announced by the US in April, Nageswaren explained that at this point it would be too noisy to carry out a quarterly division of predictions.
“But saying that the uncertainty of the trade throws a shadow, it does not necessarily have to be correct, because there was a business restriction and the average growth expectation of 6.5% is the recognition that the external sector’s contribution will be opportunistic, not necessarily something that we can take for granted,” Nageswaren explained.
Rishi Shah, the leader of the partner and the economy at Thornton Bharat LLP, said the Indian 6.5% real GDP growth in FY25, albeit lower than 9.2% of the previous year, reflects structural resistance in global volatility. He noted that the revival of private consumption to 7.2% and a constant growth of investment to 7.1% underlines strong domestic demand, even if external headwinds persist. Household consumption increased from 5.6% to 7.2%, while government expenditures slowed to 2.3% of 8.1%, indicating a shift towards fiscal caution.
“This balance – where private demand compensates for limited public expenditures – causes organic recovery mechanisms to seize,” he said.
“When looking forward, India seems to be ready for 6-7% growth despite the slowing global economy. However, permanent growth above 7% will require navigation of treacherous waters of fragmentation of the supply chain and ensure that our manufacturing ambitions do not build the victims of the same protectionist streams that take over global trade,” he added.
Plan
Fiscal plan for balancing the Consolidation of FY26 with growth, using strong income without taxation to maintain fiscal discipline without resorting to sharp cuts, thus maintaining growth dynamics in the middle of global volatility, said a higher government official who spoke on anonymity.
“Fiscal discipline will be maintained in an unstable global environment,” the person added.
In the Nageswaren presentation, he pointed out that the center retains its view of FY26 growth of 6.3-6.8%, conducted in an economic survey of 2024-25. Demand for goods and services, especially revival in rural areas, and durable export services are key driving factors of this growth, said the presentation added that more agencies assumed that India’s growth would be between 6.3 – 6.7% of this fiscal.
“We assume that consumption will remain robust in the current fiscal year, aroused by favorable domestic factors, such as normal monsoon formulas, interest rate transfer to the Indian reserve bank (RBI) and the benefits of middle -class income,” said Dharmakirti Joshi, chief economist, Crisel. “Net-Net we expect Indian GDP to grow to 6.5% in the fiscal year 2026 with risks tilted down,” he added.
Benign food prices
Nageswaren said that every indication is that there are adequate food supplies and that the benign price of food will continue. Also, falling oil prices will potentially reduce import accounts, create fiscal space and alleviate external economic pressures, the Nagewarenská presentation said.
The presentation emphasized that the robust domestic demand supported Indian economic growth and that the share of private expenses in final consumption (PFCF) in GDP increased to the highest level from FY04 to 61.4% in FY25. PFCF is the largest driver of the Indian economy.
Ranen Baerjee, partner and leader, Economic Advisory, PWC India said private consumption should be better in FY26 with tax concessions for paid households announced in the budget.
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Meanwhile, the Indian GDP growth in FY26 is expected to remain stable at 6.5%, as the recently Indian reserve bank (RBI) assumes, and the outlook is marked as “evenly balanced” despite global uncertainties.
Although the economy is unlikely to be significantly influenced by the US reciprocal tariffs, and the trade agreement is expected to facilitate tension soon, it is not expected that regional geopolitical problems, including friction with Pakistan, derail growth, supported by resistant domestic demand and stable political environments.
Experts said that normal monsoon, strong government Kapex, robust investment demand and positive consumer and business and business sentiment promote Indian views of FY26, although geopolitical tensions and different global monetary policies increase uncertainty.
Manufacturing
Production of production increased to 4.5% on £29.54 trillion in FY25, although it comes to a higher base, while the production production of FY24 increases to 12.3%.
Interestingly, production in agriculture of forestry, livestock and fishing faced a less serious shock due to good monsoons with production growing to 4.6% on £24.77 trillion in FY25 due to good monsoons, higher than 2.7% growth, which is expected in the previous year.
The output of the mining and construction industry increased by 2.7%and 9.4%on £3.39 trillion and £15.72 trillion, during FY25, after registration 3.2% and 10.4% growth in the previous year.
The slowdown of construction growth was largely due to the delay of projects supported by the state during the general elections in the last fiscal.
Rumki Majumdar, the economist of Deloitte India, said that agriculture was Standout an artist in FY25 and increased to 4.6% in the previous year compared to 2.7%. With early monsoons and release of food inflation, they will probably see an improved purchasing power and strengthen the already strong trends in rural consumption – especially evident in the growth of the FMCG sector.
This momentum is expected to support overall domestic demand.
“Private investments have seen a huge leap this quarter, which is good news. The Indian investment taste of the private sector has been low since the beginning of 2024 and the government burdened the investment burden from Pandemie,” she said.
“However, we must pay attention to this trend because several global uncertainties weigh investment sentiment,” she added.
Global perspective
Indian relatively high growth data come at a time when the main global economy is facing a slowdown in growth at steep interest rates. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) reduced its growth growth forecasts for the US to 1.8%, euro area to 0.8%and China to 4%, quoted higher tariffs and growing economic uncertainty. Lower reduction signals the weakening prospects of global growth.
The IMF projects the Indian economy to increase by 6.2% in FY25 and 6.3% in FY26, making it the fastest growing main economy. Growth is largely driven by strong private consumption, especially in rural areas, the agency said.
The IMF reports the growth of India GDP in the fiscal year, unlike most other countries that are evaluated in the calendar year. The IMF also expects India to overcome Japan and become the fourth largest economy in the world in 2025.
(Tagstotranslate) Kotak Mahindra Bank (T) Expenditure on final consumption
