
Trump’s tectonic business shifts hit the dollar
The first 100 days of the second term of term of Donald Trump as the US President was marked by the vortex of economic policy that created uncertainty in the global markets. The reflector largely concerned trade tariffs and its attitudes against China, whose effects have spread to US dollar and gold markets.
Since the return of Trump to the 20th of January, the dollar index dropped by almost 9%, which is the worst performance in the first 100 days of any Presidency since Nixon, when the US left the Bretton Woods system.
The dollar drop comes in the middle of the escalating tension and perceived instability in American economic policy. As the dollar weakens, gold has grown to record maximum, because investors threw themselves into precious metal as a safe refuge, driven by growing concern for inflation and potential recession. Although there are worries about the disturbances caused by Trump’s tariffs, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has ruled out the recession in the largest economy in the world.
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Monetary policy outlook: Expect caution
When several central banks are preparing for monetary policy reviews in May, the markets largely expect a careful tone. The escalation tension of tariffs, political noise, solid inflation in many countries, and growth slowing prohibited an economic outlook that could cause cuts or at least status quo in many countries.
The US federal reserve system faces the growing political pressure of President Donald Trump to reduce rates because he accuses high costs of lending for slowing the economy. Fed officials, however, claim that it is too early to move, waiting for the clarity of the risk of inflation controlled by the tariff.
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In Japan, the central bank is expected to maintain stable rates, care before weakening yen and external shocks, although home inflation thumb closer to its 2% goal.
It is also expected that Bank of England and Bank Indonesia will maintain political rates unchanged and communicate fragile economic conditions and volatile capital flows. With global risks, central banks are largely considered to be stability at uncertain time.
The US economic pillar is shaking
With almost 14% contribution to national GDP, California has long been a pillar of the American economy. In 2024, the state reached $ 4.1 trillion, which is now higher than Japan, the fourth largest economy in the world. Since developed nations tried to maintain good growth in 2024, in 2024 the California economy increased by 6.01%and exceeded not only GDP growth by 5.3%, but also economies such as China (2.6%) and Germany (2.9%).
Despite its economic power, however, California faces significant challenges. Since March 2025, the unemployment rate was 5.3%, which is higher than the national average 4.2%. The state economy, which bridges the industry from Silicon Valley Tech to agriculture, is also prone to the impact of Trump’s tariffs that are at risk of costing billions. In response to California, she recently filed a lawsuit that claimed that tariffs hurt his economy and question their legality.
IMF emphasizes the global debt strain
The IMF raised alarms about the growing global debt and predicted a significant increase in the coming years. According to a fiscal monitor in April 2025, global public debt in 2025 increases to 95.1% of GDP by 2.8 percentage points. This increase is expected to continue and potentially pushes the debt level to almost 100% by 2030 and overcomes the peaks of the pandemic.
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In the US, the debt could increase to 122.5% of GDP in 2025, especially driven by increased military expenditures and fiscal support. Meanwhile, Japan, which is already carrying debt, which is more than 200% of GDP, faces permanent challenges due to demographic pressures and slow economic growth.
The developing market economies are particularly vulnerable, with increasing interest rates and fiscal tribes. Chinese debt is expected to rise to 96.3% of GDP, while India is expected to reach 80.4%. In order to deal with these challenges, countries will have to promote economic growth, reduce unnecessary expenses and perform fiscal reforms.
Pope Francis laid down rest
The graduation of Pope Francis, the first Latin American and Jesuit leader of the Catholic Church, ended the 12 -year papacy, dominated by compassion and progressive attitude.
At his death, Pope Francis was the second oldest Pope, who served in more than 400 years. In the current century, Benedict XVI, elected in 2005, is close to the age of 85.8. The inheritance of Pope Francis is largely considered to be a moral compass in an increasingly divided world, because it often emphasized the situation of the poor, migrants and marginalized and was named “the Pope for the poor”.
While his humanitarian approach has upset several conservative voices, the lack of reforms on several fronts related to women’s rights, such as the regulation of women such as deacons and priests in the Church, also disrupts progressive Catholics.
(Tagstotranslate) Trump’s business policy