Geo-economic conflict has emerged as the biggest risk the world will face in 2026, while cyber security is a significant concern for India, according to the World Economic Forum’s (WEF) Global Risks Report released on Wednesday (14).
The report said geoeconomic confrontation rose eight positions to become the top global risk over the two-year period, followed by disinformation and disinformation, social polarization, extreme weather and interstate conflict.
Within ten years, extreme weather events are the greatest risk, followed by biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse, which are critical changes in Earth’s systems. Other significant concerns include disinformation and misinformation, as well as the negative impacts of AI technologies.
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What are the risks for India?
For India, the study identified five main risks, including cyber security, income inequality, inadequate public services and social protection, economic decline and state armed conflict.
The WEF highlighted that critical infrastructure has become a new arena for global conflict. It warned that governments in control of rivers and reservoirs could be tempted to divert water to their own populations, which could harm neighboring countries, suggesting the growing importance of water security around the world.
“Potential flashpoints in the next decade could include the Indus River Basin between India and Pakistan or Afghanistan’s construction of the Qosh Tepa Canal, which could reduce the flow of the Amudarya River to Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan,” it said.
Meanwhile, the report cited India’s Unified Payments Interface as a “good example” for governments to adopt, which aims to make their banking systems more attractive and, in turn, more resilient to potential future global debt situations or wider financial crises.
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Regarding the risks of disinformation and misinformation, she identified a specific problem area as the spread of deepfakes, or digitally altered videos, images and audio recordings.
Reports stated that deepfakes have started to proliferate, which have more influence on politics and electoral processes. Arming them can undermine confidence in democratic institutions, contribute to increased political polarization, and potentially lead to the incitement of political violence or social upheaval.
“Recent elections in the United States, Ireland, the Netherlands, Pakistan, Japan, India and Argentina have all had to deal with such fictional content on social media depicting fictitious events or discrediting political candidates, blurring the lines between fact and fiction,” the statement said.
When it comes to the outlook for the next 10 years, 57 percent expect a turbulent or stormy world, 32 percent expect things to be unsettled, 10 percent predict stability and 1 percent expect calm.
“A new competitive order is taking shape as major powers seek to secure their spheres of interest. This changing environment, where cooperation looks significantly different than yesterday, reflects a pragmatic reality: collaborative approaches and a spirit of dialogue remain essential,” said WEF President and CEO Borge Brende.
“Our annual meeting in Davos will serve as a vital platform for understanding the risks and opportunities and building the bridges needed to address them,” he added.
Geopolitical outlook
When it comes to the geopolitical outlook, 68 percent of respondents expect a “multipolar or fragmented order” in the next decade, up four points from last year.
Economic risks experience the most significant collective increase in the two-year outlook. The risks of an economic downturn and inflation jumped eight places to 11th and 21st respectively, while the risk of an asset bubble burst rose seven places to 18th.
Rising debt concerns and potential asset bubbles amid geo-economic tensions could trigger a new phase of volatility, according to the report.
Misinformation and disinformation ranked second in the two-year outlook, while cyber security ranked sixth globally.
Negative AI results showed the clearest progression, rising from 30th in the 2-year outlook to 5th in the 10-year outlook, reflecting concerns about the impact on labor markets, society and security.
Polarization of society ranked 4th in 2026 and 3rd by 2028. Inequality ranked 7th in both the 2-year and 10-year outlook.
As short-term concerns overshadowed long-term goals, environmental risks fell in priority over the two-year forecast.
Extreme weather moved from No. 2 to No. 4, pollution fell from No. 6 to No. 9, while critical changes in Earth systems and biodiversity loss fell seven and five places, respectively.
Over the course of 10 years, they continued to be the most serious. Three-quarters of respondents expected a turbulent or tumultuous environmental outlook, representing the most negative perception of all categories.
