France, England, Spain or Argentina? How the $5.3 billion betting market is calling the 2026 FIFA World Cup

France, England, Spain or Argentina? After 100 matches and more than a month of thrilling football, the 2026 FIFA World Cup has reached its final stage with only four teams left standing. This is a historic semi-final line-up in more ways than one. For the first time since the introduction of the FIFA World Rankings in 1992, the top four teams in the world – France, Argentina, Spain and England – advanced to the last four at the World Cup. It is also the first time since 1990 that all four semi-finalists are former world champions, underscoring the quality and pedigree of the teams still in contention.There has been much debate over the past month about who will emerge victorious from the first-ever 48-team FIFA World Cup, a tournament expanded to include a record 104 matches and 32 knockout matches. There have been surprise packages, giant-killings and emotional exits along the way, but as the tournament enters its final week, the contenders are exactly who they should be according to the FIFA rankings.After six rounds of football – three group stage matches, followed by the round of 32, the round of 16 and the quarter-finals – the world’s four highest-ranked teams are just two wins away from winning world football’s most coveted trophy.The semifinal program promises two mouth-watering contests. Spain face France in Arlington, Texas on July 15, while defending champions Argentina face England in Atlanta on July 16. The losing teams will compete in a third-place playoff in Miami on July 19 before the champions are crowned in the finals at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey on July 20.

Who are the favorites? Betting markets offer a clue

With four football heavyweights remaining, one of the biggest questions among fans is simple: Who is most likely to lift the trophy?While predictions remain subjective, betting markets often provide a useful snapshot of public sentiment. Two of the biggest prediction platforms, Polymarket and Kalshi, attracted enormous interest during the tournament with a total betting volume of more than $5.3 billion across various FIFA World Cup markets. Around $4.2 billion was wagered on Polymarket and $1.1 billion on Kalshi across predictions from Tournament Winner and Golden Boot to Golden Ball, Best Young Player, Golden Glove and Fair Play awards.Separate prediction markets have also been created for each semi-final, offering a look at how fans expect the final four to play out.According to Kalshi, France enter the semi-final against Spain as favorites with a 59% chance of reaching the final compared to Spain’s 41%. More than $9 million was reportedly wagered on this particular outcome.The second semi-final is perceived as significantly tighter. England are just ahead of defending champions Argentina, with the Three Lions having a 54% chance of progressing compared to Argentina’s 46%. Around $2.8 million was wagered on this market alone.Polymarket reflects a similar trend. The platform also favors the France vs. England, with the France-Spain semi-final trading significantly more money ($7.6m) than Argentina vs England ($1m).

France is emerging as the clear favorite for the title

As for the outright winner, the betting markets overwhelmingly favor France.Across the two prediction platforms, around 39% of bets have backed Didier Deschamps’ side to win the World Cup, making Les Bleus clear favorites going into the final week.The battle behind them is much closer. England are second favourites, attracting around 22% of predictions, just slightly ahead of Spain, who are around 21%. Perhaps the biggest surprise is the market’s view of Argentina. Despite being the defending champions and boasting Lionel Messi, they are currently the least favorite of the four remaining teams, with only around 18% of predictions backing them to successfully defend their title.A total of $4 billion was wagered on the Polymarket tournament winners category, while nearly $1.2 billion was wagered on Kalshi.Polymarket’s predicted final combinations also reflect France’s status as favourites. Final France vs. England is considered the most likely outcome, carrying an estimated 35% probability. A repeat of the 2022 final between France and Argentina is seen as the second most likely scenario at 28%, followed by Spain v England (21%) and Spain v Argentina (20%).

The Golden Boot race remains perfectly balanced

The race for the Golden Boot has become one of the most fascinating subplots of the tournament.In the semi-finals, Kylian Mbappe and Lionel Messi share the top of the scoring charts with eight goals, while Harry Kane remains in contention with six.The betting markets heavily favor Mbappe to finish as the tournament’s top scorer. More than $55 million was reportedly wagered on Polymarket’s Golden Boot and another $16 million on Kalshi.Mbappe commands 56% of predictions on Polymarket and 61% on Kalshi, while Messi trails behind with 34% and 31% respectively. Kane remains a distant third, receiving only 5% of predictions on Polymarket and 4% on Kalshi.With every leading contender still alive in the tournament, the Golden Boot race is expected to go all the way to the finals. The Golden Ball, Young Player and Golden Glove races are heating upThe race for the Golden Ball, awarded to the best player of the tournament, also attracted significant attention.In this category, approximately $7 million was wagered on Polymarket and $3.3 million on Kalshi. Mbappe (56% on Playmarket and 61% on Kalshi) again leads the betting, while Messi (34% and 31%) remains his closest challenger. England star Jude Bellingham (18% on both) is also firmly in contention after another excellent campaign.Spanish sensation Lamine Yamal became the overwhelming favorite for the award for the best young player. The teenager enjoys 42% support on Polymarket and 46% on Kalshi, ahead of Frenchman Desire Doue, while Spanish defender Pau Cubarsi completes the leading trio.The Golden Glove race is just as competitive. France goalkeeper Mike Maignan leads the betting with around 37-38% support on both platforms, just ahead of Spain’s Unai Simon.Even the Fair Play Award generated considerable interest among bettors. Norway, despite their elimination, remain overwhelming favorites to claim the honour, attracting around 90% of predictions on both betting platforms.