FIFA World Cup: The Curse of the Winners! Why the mighty keep falling

File Pic: Team Germany (Getty Images) Ohne Worte! Sometimes, if the proverb is slightly modified, two words can be enough to paint the picture. Or, perhaps given the context, “no words” are required at all!Within four years, Bild, Germany’s exuberant, opinionated and immensely popular tabloid, had splashed two banner headlines across its front page with the same two words – “Ohne Worte”, which means no words or silent words in German. The first – posted on 9 July 2014 – saw a rampaging Toni Kroos lofted by Sami Khedira in a 7-1 run as Germany edged closer to lifting world football’s crown for a fourth time, leaving Brazil to bear the brunt of the ever-haunting ‘Mineirazo’. Four years later – on June 28, 2018 – the tabloid served up the same headline, again spreading Kroos, but this time the German veteran stood alone with his hands on his hips, looking dejected and defeated. The “0-2” scoreline in the background was self-evident – Germany, the defending world champions, had exited the group stage itself with a stunning loss to South Korea, conceding both goals in stoppage time.In a theater of dreams as uplifting as the FIFA World Cup, surprise often manifests itself unapologetically. Germany, who boasted an enviable culture of planning, potency and passionate team spirit en route to the coveted prize at the Maracana, now face such a sanity-destructive situation in Russia’s Kazan Arena. Celebrated for giving a whole new meaning to the term ‘sweeper-keeper’ four years ago, Manuel Neuer was ridiculed for leaving his own territory, entering the Korean box, losing the ball and ultimately allowing Son Heung-min to score his side’s second goal.

Football and its vicissitudes

From suffering to salvation, the game is constantly creating itself. This sudden and rapid reversal of fortune is what Aristotle described as a “peripeteia.” In modern football we call it the ‘winner’s curse’.In the long, storied history of the World Cup, champions have defended their crown only twice. When Italy did it in 1938, the third World Cup was a straight four-match knockout tournament and they made sure to beat Hungary 4-2 in the final. In 1962, Brazil overcame an early injury to Pelé with the genius of Garrincha before beating Czechoslovakia 3-1 in the title decider.In the 15 editions since then, seven teams have come to lay their hands on the trophy, but none have managed to retain it. Argentina (1990), Brazil (1998) and France (2022) came closest to this trend, but for them it remained only so close, yet so far.France’s 2002 title defense was so disastrous that FIFA eventually stripped the title holders of their automatic qualification rights for 2006 and beyond. Italy, traditionally a slow starter at World Cups, barely woke up in 2010, exiting the group stage with two draws and one loss.As well as their victory in 2010, Spain opened their campaign four years later with a loss – a shock 1-5 capitulation to the Netherlands. La Roja’s fate was soon sealed with another loss to Chile. And Germany – proud to be the “Turniermannschaft” or tournament team – crashed out in the group stage itself in 2018.

A subtle phenomenon

Why are the defending champions faltering so spectacularly four years after reaching the top?A model published by the famous investment bank Goldman Sachs, which takes into account historical team performance and ranking data, significantly reduced Argentina’s chances of defending the title due to the “winner’s slump” effect – the tendency of the reigning champion to underperform at the next World Cup.Four years is a long time, and the “was-that-was-that” factor often has its own shelf life. However, any understanding of such an anomalous phenomenon is more nuanced and multifaceted. In the information age, the winning team immediately becomes the subject of an autopsy by its opponents. Spain’s tiki-taka under Vicente del Bosque in 2014 or Joaquim Loew’s mastery of Germany’s style of fast combinations on high lines in 2018 have lacked their former mystique, partly because the core of the team has aged and partly because opponents have studied them more and are better prepared to challenge them.There is also a paradox at play called the innovator’s dilemma, as coaches tend to refuse to deviate from what made the project successful. Italy, Spain and Germany returned to defend the World Cup with the same managers, yet instead of betting on the unproven, they began to employ much the same tried and trusted formula that had worked for them before.So Zinedine Zidane, the greatest of his era, was a shadow of his former self for France in 2002 after missing the first two games through injury. A much slower Xavi and Iniesta failed to recreate the magic of 2010 against fast-rising teams in Brazil under Del Bosque and Loew’s decision to rely on the world winners and ignore the hungry youngsters who had won the Confederations Cup the year before, which backfired in Russia.Add to that the impact of psychological burnout. As Juergen Klinsmann once said: “For every team that wins the World Cup, they go through so much stress, so much work, tension and exhaustion that it’s almost impossible to do it again.”This brings our attention back to the two Lionels in the Argentine camp. Determined to include 17 of the 26 players from his world-class 2022 side, can manager Scaloni go where the likes of Marcello Lippi, Del Bosque and Loew have failed? At 38 and with his body now showing signs of wear and tear, can Messi reproduce the feeling of deja vu in the US?The world will be watching them with hope, and a not-so-kind history stands in their way.