FIFA World Cup 2026: Warm up for this year’s tournament with a new impact player?

The 2026 FIFA World Cup is currently underway in North America, with matches spread across the United States, Mexico and Canada. It is the first time that 48 teams are competing for the most coveted title in international football.

However, this year’s tournament comes with another opponent on the field that threatens to drag all the teams down – the extreme heat caused by climate change. How the heat conditions could affect the possible tournament path for last year’s winners, Argentina. (Source: Climate Central)

According to a new analysis by Climate Central, the performance of players in around 93 percent of the matches to be played during this year’s World Cup could be affected by the heat caused by climate change.

FINDING

About half of the matches scheduled for this year’s World Cup have at least a 50 percent chance of experiencing heat that can affect player performance.

For the majority of games – 97 out of 104 – climate change increased the likelihood of heat impairing performance by about 8 percentage points on average. “That doesn’t sound like much, but the statistics work over the course of the tournament and add up — almost every game is more likely to have heat impairing performance because of climate change,” said Shel Winkley, a meteorologist at Climate Central. “The heat added by climate change is now as much a rival as the team on the pitch,” he added.

The worst impact of climate change is predicted for the match between Spain and Uruguay, scheduled for June 26, 2026 in Guadalajara, Mexico. The 70 percent chance of performance-degrading heat occurring during this match is a whopping 37 percentage points higher because of climate change.

WHAT IS HAPPENING WITH THE PLAYERS IN TEPRA?

A key thing to be aware of when analyzing suitable playing conditions is wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT), which combines air temperature with other environmental factors such as humidity, wind speed and solar radiation to predict how heat stress will affect a person.

The basic body temperature for humans is usually in the range of 36.5 to 37.5 °C. The most common way the body maintains it is by sweating. As sweat evaporates, the body cools.

However, there are other thermoregulatory mechanisms that take place so that the body can maintain its internal temperature, explained Dr. Oliver Gibson, Assistant Professor of Exercise Physiology at Brunel University of London. Blood flow to organs considered nonessential, such as the gastrointestinal tract, kidney, and liver, is reduced during acute heat stress to favor cooling. In addition, the workload of the heart increases to maintain adequate blood pressure and promote circulation to both the skin and vital organs.

“If, in the case of an athlete exercising in the heat, this thermoregulatory response turns out to be insufficient, there can be a physiological conflict between blood flow to the working muscles and to the skin for cooling,” Dr Gibson said. “As the body prioritizes heat dissipation and prevention of heat-related illness or injury, blood flow to the muscles may deteriorate. This may lead to a reduction in exercise intensity as the athlete subconsciously or consciously adjusts their effort,” he added.

According to Dr. Gibson, these changes are more visible in endurance athletes compared to soccer players, but it can still be seen in the shortening of high-speed running distance in the sport, as the number of high-speed runs or sprints decreases.

“The game system usually slows down with more conservative passing choices that allow players to move in matches played in higher or lower or known heat stress,” explained Dr Gibson.

An analysis on the performance of the players at the 2014 FIFA World Cup, published in 2016 in International Journal of Biometeorologyfound that at temperatures above 28 °C, players ran comparably shorter distances overall. High humidity also reduced the total distance traveled. They also performed fewer sprints in warmer temperatures. In cold and dry conditions, players averaged about 40 sprints per match. In hot conditions (above 28°C), this dropped to around 31 sprints, a drop of almost 22.5 per cent. About one in four sprints disappeared when it warmed up.

FIFPRO recommends that if the WBGT is between 28 and 32°C, cooling breaks should take place around the 30th and 75th minutes of play. If WBGT is above 32°C, training and matches should be rescheduled.

FIFPRO also adds that athletes cannot consume more than 250ml of water every 20 minutes, so hydration breaks should be short and frequent.

However, according to Dr Ollie Jay, professor of heat and health at the University of Sydney, these players are highly fit and have all undergone heat acclimation by arriving at tournament venues early. “The biggest risk to athletes is reduced performance (up to 30%) and mild heat exhaustion from a medical perspective. It is unlikely that a player will experience heat stroke, which is a medical emergency,” he said.

The breaks halfway through each half provide very limited respite, Dr Jay added. “Research shows that an extended half-time break is the most effective way to reduce the risk of players overheating.”

COULD THIS DISTORT THE OUTCOME OF THE TOURNAMENT?

According to Dr. Gibson, teams that are well prepared to deal with heat stress can have a substantial advantage over an unprepared team, especially late in the game, in games played in warmer conditions and early in the tournament, before other players have acclimatized to heat stress.

Heat acclimation could be an important strategy for training to play in warmer conditions. This includes active exercise or passive methods such as sauna, hot baths, often referred to as a chronic approach to relieve heat, said Dr Gibson.

“In addition to training in the heat, acute heat mitigation strategies, such as familiarizing players with planned drinking strategies to prevent dehydration, and adapting pre- and mid-competition cooling with iced slush drinks, cooling clothing and modifying pre-match routines help to maintain player health and performance by reducing body temperature rise,” he added.

Acclimatization is easy to gain, but that means players can also lose it quickly, Dr Jay said. “Acclimatized players will also be able to sweat more easily, which means they can cool down. Their core temperature also starts a little lower, so they have more room before they get to dangerous core temperature levels,” he explained.

Of the 16 stadiums hosting the 2026 FIFA World Cup, three are fully air-conditioned, two have a partial canopy that covers the seating but not the playing surface, two have a retractable roof but are not air-conditioned, while nine are open-air. The effect of atmospheric heat is likely to be much greater in outdoor stadiums than in climate-controlled stadiums. 2026 FIFA World Cup: Stadium Covers (Data: Climate Central)

The impact is also noticeable on the audience. The June 14 match between Brazil and Morocco was played at the New York New Jersey Open Stadium in East Rutherford and drew 1–1. The game had a 20 percent chance of being played in performance-sapping heat, made 7 percentage points worse by climate change. According to Deepankar Singh, a data scientist and football enthusiast based in the city, the last quarter was “flat as players seemed to conserve energy and settle for a draw”. “The game was played in my city and it was a hot day. I suppose it will happen in other games as well,” Singh said.

– The end

Issued by:

Priyali Prakash

Published on:

June 19, 2026 1:27 PM IST