(Bloomberg) – Israeli aviation strikes have damaged the Iranian nuclear program, but probably did not achieve it, experts said and presented Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the US with Quandary about what to do next.
The complete scope of destruction caused by ongoing missile fire begins only clear. Rafael, CEO of the CEO of atomic energy, Mariano Grossi told the UN Security Council on Friday that while Israel has destroyed surface facilities at the main Iranian nuclear fuel location in Natanz, it has not yet been disturbed by the primary underground halls where uranium enrichment takes place.
Natanz is a critical part of the Iranian atomic program, but the results of strikes in other places – in Isfahan and Ford – will be heavily weighing other Israeli other movements.
The risk for Netanyahu is that the expansion of a military campaign could lead to nuclear activities of the Republic of Islamic, a deeper underground, end access to inspectors supported by carried and potentially harden Tehran’s determination. Iran replied to attacks by focusing on Israeli cities by hundreds of ballistic missiles and drones since Friday evening.
Successful elimination of the site isfahan would be significant because it is the only Iranian place to convert uranium into a raw material used by centrifugs, which in turn separate uranium isotopes needed for nuclear energy or bombs.
Without the ability to convert new volumes of raw uranium, Iran’s ability to produce another amount of enriched product. While Iran has sufficient stocks of existing material, its ability to expand would be limited.
“If you interrupt this piece of flow, the fuel cycle is no longer working,” said Robert Kelley, an American nuclear engineer who led the IAE inspections in Irak and Libya. “The front end of their program will die.”
Israeli leaders will go through reports on damage in the coming days and decide whether to reach the strikes ahead. The campaign, long supported by Netanyahu’s promise to focus on nuclear program, has also killed nine leading scientists whose expertise was essential for Iranian nuclear ambitions.
This step challenged the future of interviews between the US and Iran on a diplomatic solution that limits Tehran atomic activities in exchange for relief from sanctions. The sixth round of negotiations was planned on Sunday, but it is not clear whether they will continue.
“Apparently there is no complete rating,” said Suzanne Maloney, vice president Brookings Institution based in Washington. However, a combination of strokes and killing key safety and nuclear staff, “for Iran it will be very difficult to reconstruct the program to the level at which it was before these attacks,” she said.
Experts said air strikes make it difficult to monitor atomic activities of Iran, because the UN -supported inspectors are unlikely to access the site for a long time. It is also unlikely that the attack will end the Tehran nuclear program, although progress is slowed down, according to Kelsey Davenport, director of policy of non -extent in the Association of Weapons Control.
“There is a real risk that Iran can divert uranium, enriched with a class level in an almost hidden place, or that Iaea may not be able to explain all Iranian nuclear materials for damage,” Davenport said.
According to Robert Kelley, an engineer of nuclear weapons, 400 kilograms (£ 880) could be useful. The concern was that Iran could use this material as a raw material for a weapon if there was a threat to log out of the non-placing contract-Global initiative that prevents the dissemination of nuclear weapons-the inspectors will dig.
Another problem is the enrichment point at Fordow, which is buried under the mountain and is considered to be vulnerable only to the types of massive bombs bombs that have the US in its arsenal.
“Israel cannot destroy Fordwow without American military aid,” Davenport said.
This leads to the question of whether the US President Donald Trump’s administration would join the battle to remove this site. For an American leader, it would be a difficult choice that led the campaign for the idea of being a peaceful president and repeatedly stated that it favors the diplomatic solution of the Iranian nuclear problem.
“Unlike Israel, the United States has bases near Iran and could make more devastating strikes on nuclear facilities and also seriously worsen Iranian air defense,” said Strategic and International Studies Center. “Although Trump’s administration may not want to attack Iran, it may feel that it is better than allowing Iran to rebuild his nuclear program.”
It was a puzzle that even Israeli officials recognized could not be resolved by bombing. The National Security Advisor Tzachi Hanegbi acknowledged so many Fridays and said it was “impossible to destroy the nuclear program with the force itself”.
“The aim is to get the Iranians to understand that they will have to stop the nuclear program,” said Hanegbi Channel 12.
-S using Courtney McBride and Ryan Chu.
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(Tagstotranslate) Israel Airstrikes
