Environmentalists urge scientists and policymakers to study looming ‘Super’ El Niño and prepare for future

As many as 188 Indian scientists and environmentalists have jointly issued a call to fellow researchers and practitioners to prepare for the effects of the upcoming El Niño – a global weather phenomenon that dampens the monsoon and leads to extreme hot and dry conditions in the subcontinent.

In the Pacific Ocean, where El Niño originates, temperatures rose steadily above the 0.5°C mark, reaching +2.6°C in August 2026. Projections indicate possible anomalies of up to +4°C, more than at any time in the past 1,000 years, based on reconstructions from coral cores, they said.

The signatories warned that in the coming months, India’s natural systems are likely to experience a number of potentially devastating impacts as a result of El Niño. “These include widespread coral bleaching and mortality, an increase in wildfires and the death of large rainforest trees. With a high probability of drought and extreme temperature conditions, this year’s El Niño is likely to be disastrous for Indian farmers, fishermen and pastoralists. Beyond that, however, there may be more subtle impacts on Indian wildlife, but equally visible changes in animal behavior, including less important changes in animal behavior. You specifically look for them,” they said.

With the high probability of drought and extreme temperature conditions, this year’s El Niño is likely to be disastrous for India’s farmers, fishermen and pastoralists as well. Photo: Special arrangement

The “Call to Action” urges scientists to take advantage of the warning signs and mobilize as a community to document and study the impact of this event on India’s wildlife, arguing that better science and documentation are essential to preparing India for a climate-resilient future.

Jayashree Ratnam, scientist, National Center for Biological Sciences, said in a report, “Next year will be a litmus test for India’s tropical forests and trees. The giant forest trees may seem indestructible, but in the Western Ghats, many of them are already close to the limit of the heat they can tolerate. Big trees are especially vulnerable to prolonged drought on the islands, because trees are vital even to large island droughts. To understand, how the coming El Niño will affect trees and other plants – because these are the foundations on which all other life depends.”

“I’ve seen the devastating effects of El Niños on Indian coral reefs before, and it’s heartbreaking. Coral reefs can be remarkably resilient, but they need at least ten years after any major coral die-off to show significant recovery. The last major El Niño was in 2024, and barely two years after that event, our scale and intensity of a really scary wave is predicted to head.” Rohan Arthur, marine biologist with the Nature Conservancy.

More subtle impacts on India’s wildlife—including delayed fruit production or changes in animal behavior—could be just as important, but may be much less visible. Photo: Special arrangement

Roxy Mathew Koll, a climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, also said that India’s monsoon season ends with a rainfall deficit, but the impacts may not end there. “They can creep into the coming seasons and cascade through depleted soil moisture and water storage, land and sea heat waves, stressed crops and livelihoods, wildfires, coral bleaching and less visible ecological changes. This gives us a short but valuable window to act. We need to document these changes as they unfold, but also protect the ecosystems that rest on them and reduce is, we can learn during what weakens, we can protect against El pressure a warmer and more volatile future.”

What is the “Super” El Nino 2026-27?

El Niño is a periodic climatic event (every 2-7 years) that is triggered by a change in ocean circulation and warming in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Its consequences vary in different parts of the world. In India, El Niño events are usually associated with higher temperatures and a delayed/reduced monsoon. In the Indian Ocean, El Niño interacts with another system, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which can dampen or amplify El Niño conditions regionally, according to the signatories.

“Although the last El Niño was only two years ago (2024), all indications are that we will see another event this year, but on a much larger scale. Since May 2026, sea surface temperatures in the Pacific have exceeded 0.5°C above normal (the threshold for declaring an El Niño event) and these temperatures continue to rise, reaching a possible 2noma of +2.6°C to +4°C, which is more than at any time based on reconstructions from coral cores the last 1,000 years,” the document explained.

He added that the main effects of El Niño are expected to be felt in the Northern Hemisphere (including India) from November 2026 to next year. India Meteorological Department bulletins predict El Niño effects until at least March 2027 (when their projections end) and the effects are likely to continue long after that.

“Based on earlier (albeit less extreme) El Niño events, the Indian mainland is expected to experience substantially hot and dry conditions and weak monsoons. The surrounding seas are likely to witness sea heat. Of course, the intensity is likely to vary across different geographical regions of the country and it is difficult to predict the magnitude of the impact in the coming months for India on how the ecosystems will evolve,” I said.

Published – 19 Sep 2026 21:47 IST