El Niño will hurt India’s wind, hydropower: study

A report by the Center for Clean Energy and Clean Air Research projects that weaker wind and hydropower performance, combined with rising demand for air conditioning, could open a generation gap of nearly 18 TWh (terawatt hours) for the year to June 2027. File | Photo credit: The Hindu

According to an analysis by the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), India’s power system is more strained by the developing El Niño than any other country. They predict that weaker wind and hydropower performance, combined with rising demand for air conditioning, could open a generation gap of nearly 18 TWh (terawatt hours) in the year to June 2027.

Compared to India’s total electricity generation of about 1,846 billion units in 2025-26, the shortfall in CREA models is small or below 1% of annual generation. Non-fossil sources supplied 29.2% of this generation. The group cares less about the size of the gap than how it is filled. CREA’s projected average output puts it at 17.7 TWh and the most severe at 24 TWh — one TWh is a billion units of electricity — and says the most likely result is a surge in coal power that will release an estimated 17 million tons of carbon dioxide. He emphasizes that these are scenario projections, not forecasts.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) confirmed last month that El Niño conditions had emerged over the equatorial Pacific and were expected to intensify during the monsoon. It predicts below-normal southwest monsoon rainfall at 90% of the long-term average, with a 60% chance of a deficient season.

June rainfall closed with an all-India rainfall deficit of about 40%, the fifth lowest June since 1901, and the cumulative deficit was 20% below normal by 6 July. IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said rainfall in July is likely to remain below normal over most of the country.

Electricity production capacity

India entered the season with record power generation capacity. As of March 31, non-fossil installed capacity reached 283.46 GW — 150.26 GW of solar, 56.09 GW of wind, 51.41 GW of large hydro and 8.78 GW of nuclear — after adding a record 44.6 GW of solar and 6 GW of wind in 2025. Coal remains the largest single energy source, with about 42% of installed capacity. although coal production fell by 3.69% during the year. Peak demand reached 270.82 GW on May 21, according to official data.

CREA, which says solar now covers 24% of daily demand, says storage could have absorbed more. Grid operators curtailed about 2.1 TWh of solar and wind power last year to keep coal plants running — waste that CREA, citing energy analytics company Ember, says roughly 10 GWh of battery storage could prevent.

India needs to “move much faster on batteries and grid modernization,” said Nandikesh Sivalingam, director of CREA, so that clean energy can meet future demand growth. The country is preparing about 130 GW of new coal-fired capacity to provide electricity on demand and help dampen record peaks such as those in May.

Published – 06 Jul 2026 23:46 IST