El Niño could kill 15,800 people in next 6 months in India, says survey: What is it? How does this affect temperatures? | Today’s news
Nearly 451,000 more deaths could occur worldwide over the next six months due to the ongoing “Super El Niño” compared to a normal year, according to a University of Chicago study released Wednesday. The projection includes approximately 15,800 additional heat-related deaths in India.
The study warned that India may see a significant proportion of these deaths during the winter months, with the impact expected to continue into the summer.
“In India, almost half of these deaths occur in just three months – from December to February. The number of deaths is not expected to stop here, with these deaths expected to continue to rise into the Indian summer,” the study said.
What is El Niño and how does it affect temperatures?
El Niño is a recurring climate phenomenon caused by an unusual warming of sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean. It usually occurs every two to seven years and can affect rainfall and temperatures in different parts of the world.
Read also | Monsoon watch: Delhi ‘feels like’ temperature to cross 50C on Sunday; details here
This phenomenon is related to the weakening trade winds and can continue for up to 12 months. The World Meteorological Organization has warned that this year’s El Niño could be exceptionally strong, potentially reaching levels not seen since modern monitoring began.
Global temperatures could rise 1.2°C above normal
A study by the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab estimates that average land temperatures could remain 1.2°C above normal in the coming months.
El Niño started in June and is expected to continue until spring in the Northern Hemisphere. Scientists said the unusually warm conditions could be reminiscent of the temperatures that climate change is expected to bring in about 20 years.
The study also predicted a 44% increase in the number of extremely hot days compared to what would normally be expected.
The Global South is likely to bear the greatest impact
The assessment estimated 451,000 additional deaths between September 2026 and February 2027, with countries in the Global South expected to face a particularly heavy burden.
Researchers said targeted emergency measures could prevent tens of thousands of deaths. These could include heat warnings, outreach programs for vulnerable people, cooling centers, hydration stations, better protection for outdoor workers and other capacities in health systems.
Read also | El Niño is reaching record levels as a warming Pacific affects weather around the world
“The 451,000 deaths that will occur during the first half of El Niño alone is about 65 times greater than the 6,800 people thought to have died or gone missing in the recent flash flood in Nepal,” the study said.
On August 26, flash floods and debris destroyed Gyirong port on the China-Nepal border and affected several settlements along a 72 km stretch of Nepal’s Trishuli River.
Africa, Southeast Asia and Brazil are among the worst affected regions
The study also identified areas where the highest number of additional deaths could occur over the next six months.
Africa’s Sahel region, including Nigeria, Sudan, Niger and Chad, is estimated to see around 66,800 additional deaths. Nigeria alone could account for approximately 31,400 of these deaths.
Southeast Asia, including the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia, could see another 19,400 deaths, according to estimates.
Indonesia is expected to see around 19,300 additional deaths, while Brazil could be the worst affected country in South America with around 13,300 deaths linked to El Niño-related heat.
Researchers demand long-term climate preparation
Tamma Carleton, a faculty research leader at the Climate Impact Lab and a co-author of the report, said immediate emergency measures could reduce the number of deaths this year as well.
“Increased emergency response and better targeting of efforts can save many lives this year.” “But in 20 years, when today’s extreme temperatures become the new normal, we don’t want to be in a perpetual state of emergency. We need to mobilize resources now to design, deploy and evaluate preparedness and planning tools that will save lives for years to come.”
