The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Monday predicted a below-normal monsoon in 2026, expected at 92% of the 50-year average. Deficit rainfall not only disrupts agricultural production but also triggers a ripple effect on rural incomes, inflation and overall economic growth, highlighting the sector’s continued dependence on the monsoon.
The forecast is with a model error of plus or minus 5%. In April last year, the monsoon was forecast at nearly 105% of the Long Term Average (LPA), while the actual rains were 108% of the LPA.
The LPA of seasonal rainfall over the years 1971-2020 was 87 cm. Rainfall of 96-104% LPA is considered normal.
Adequate rainfall is critical to India’s agricultural production as it boosts the agricultural economy and boosts rural demand, benefiting sectors such as fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) and automobiles and supporting overall economic growth momentum. The Southwest Monsoon provides more than 70% of the total rainfall that India receives in a year.
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However, normal cumulative rainfall does not guarantee a uniform temporal and spatial distribution of rainfall across the country, with climate change further increasing the variability of the rainfall system.
The monsoon season is vital to India and accounts for nearly 70% of the country’s annual rainfall. However, the agriculture sector remains highly vulnerable to weather fluctuations as only about 55% of the net sown area is irrigated and the rest is dependent on monsoon rains.
Much of the agricultural land depends on rainfed systems, making it highly vulnerable to changes in rainfall. Under such conditions, an above-normal monsoon is likely to support higher sowing of kharif crops such as rice, pulses, maize and soybean.
“Decline in rainfall is likely to adversely affect agricultural productivity and raise concerns about crop yields and farm income across the country,” said Professor Sudhir Panwar, a farm expert and former member of the Uttar Pradesh Planning Commission.
According to the Economic Survey 2025-26, the agriculture sector is projected to grow by 3.1% in fiscal year 2026 (FY26), helped by a favorable monsoon in the first half of the fiscal year. Agricultural GVA grew by 3.6% in the first half of FY26 compared to 2.7% in the corresponding period of FY25, indicating a better harvest. Meanwhile, related activities, especially livestock and fishing, have maintained steady growth of around 5-6%, underscoring their role in providing resilience and diversification, and reflecting steady expansion in these segments.
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However, the temporal distribution of precipitation remains the main monitorable. Any excess rainfall during critical stages of the crop cycle such as sowing, maturation and harvest can cause crop damage and yield losses, especially for crops such as pulses, cotton and maize.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said during the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting held on April 6-8 that the food price outlook remains comfortable in the near term due to strong rabi production, adequate reservoir levels and comfortable foodgrain stocks. “The likely occurrence of El Niño conditions could pose a risk,” it said. After considering all these factors, CPI inflation for 2026-27 is projected at 4.6% with Q1 4%, Q2 4.4%, Q3 5.2%; and Q4 at 4.7%. Core inflation is estimated at 4.4 percent, according to the RBI.
In a separate update, private weather forecasting agency Skymet on April 7 forecast a “subnormal” southwest monsoon for 2026, estimating seasonal rainfall at 94% (± 5%) of the long-term average (LPA) of 868.6 mm for June-September. A private forecaster said the expected rainfall falls in the “below normal” range of 90-95% LPA and reiterated his earlier outlook issued in January which signaled a below average monsoon for the year.
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Stocks of food grains are in a comfortable position this year compared to the same period last year. Total stocks of rice and wheat held by FCI and state agencies as on February 28, 2026 stood at 60.09 million tonnes (MT), including 36.47 mt of rice and 23.62 mt of wheat, which is much more than food grain storage norms. The rice storage standard was 7.6 mt. while for wheat it was set at 13.8 mt. Compared to this year, the combined stock of wheat and rice on February 28, 2025 was 50.19 mt, of which 36.79 mt was rice and 13.40 mt was wheat.
