The interstate definition of the Lok Sabha constituency may also potentially lead to the shift of power from the parties outside the BJP to the BJP.
The anxiety of defining is not only about the potential reduction of political power to the peninsula states in favor of the heart of the heart. The interstate definition of the Lok Sabha constituency may also potentially lead to the shift of power from the parties outside the BJP to the BJP.
The analysis suggests that with the same share of voting, BJP would acquire 14 other seats and six other seats in 2024 if the Lok Sabha constituencies were defined to the state borders in 2011.
Table 1 shows the current MP seats in selected major states and a potential change in these chairs if it is defined and maintained the total number of parliamentary constituencies.
It shows that the number of MP Tamil Nadu will be reduced from 39 to 32, Kerala from 20 to 15 and Karnataka from 28 to 27, while the number of MP Uttar Pradesh will increase from 80 to 88, Bihar from 40 to 46, Rajasthanovy from 25 to 30 and Madhya Pradesh’s from 29 to 32.
The distribution of possible post-detimitation number of Lok Sabha’s seats in each state to the parties according to their actual share of voices and armchairs in 2019 and 2024 suggests that all other chairs standing BJP are in its key fortress Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh decreases in Karnataka, Odisha, Himachal Pradesh and West Bengal.
This means that the definition strengthens two wide political trends that are already visible – specifically a reduced role of regional parties and a reduced role of southern states in national politics. BJP will strengthen its position as a national hegemon, but with its support focuses in the heart.
BJP therefore has a motivation to not interrupt the constitutional scheme of things that requires defining after the first census after 2026. However, if BJP thinks it is wise to assure the southern states and pandjab in this matter and take advantage of it as an opportunity to expand its trace, its course may be different.
For opposition, these figures mean that their fight against BJP is in the states of the heart. If the opposition to BJP in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, UP and Bihar is weak, the ability to win BJP will increase most of Lok Sabha from less states.
Table 2a shows the number of seats obtained by the Indian block and the NDA in 2024. It also shows the number of seats that could be won by alliances in 2024 if the election districts were based on the census definition in 2011.
Table 2b shows the number of seats acquired by the Indian block and NDA in 2019. It also shows the number of seats that could be obtained in 2019 if the election districts were based on the 2011 census.
If the results of 2019 were settled on the basis of chairs defined by the census in 2011, the NDA would have a majority in Lok Sabha by simply obtaining chairs from Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Haryan, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh and Delhi. In 2019, the NDA actually secured 254 seats from these states, which would rise to 277 if the borders were redesigned.
Seats obtained by NDA in Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Kerala, Odisha, West Bengal, Karnataka, Himachal Pradesh, Pandjab, Uttarakhand, Assam and Kashmir have become unnecessary.
If the division between the ruling party and the opposition manifests itself as a geographical abyss, it can weaken the national unity. If the number of most and minorities in parliament is more evenly distributed geographically and socially, national integration may be advanced.
Table 3 shows the same information in Table 2a and 2b, but only for BJP.
Source: Data was taken from Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Indian Election Commission and includes Hindus calculations
vignesh.r@thehind.co.in
varghese.g@thehind.co.in
Published – 26 March 2025 07:00
