Cyclone Maila, which had strengthened to a Category Five storm, has weakened as it continues its slow progress across the Solomon Sea.
After being labeled one of the strongest storms of the season, Cyclone Maila weakened over the past 24 hours, initially downgrading to a category four before being downgraded to a category three again on Friday.
The storm is expected to make landfall in Queensland, Australia early next week.
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Here’s the latest on Cyclone Maila
According to the latest Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) bulletin, Cyclone Maila was located between Papua New Guinea and the Solomon Islands and was moving southwest at a slow speed of 8 kilometers per hour.
As of 0000 UTC Friday, Cylone Maila had a maximum 10-minute wind speed of 140 km/h, with a maximum 3-second gust of 195 km/h.
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Why is Cyclone Maila weakening?
The latest BOM technical bulletin notes that environmental conditions are currently unfavorable for storm development, contributing to a gradual weakening of the storm.
Two primary factors weakened the system’s intensity: persistent easterly deep-layer wind shear—measured at approximately 20 to 25 knots—and a significant reduction in local sea surface temperatures. As the cyclone moved slowly over the past few days, it generated turbulent ocean upwelling that cooled local waters to between 24 and 26 degrees Celsius, the bulletin said.
As a result, the storm’s satellite signature has deteriorated considerably over the past 18 hours, as evidenced by the loss of the eye and reduced central convection. The central pressure, at 0000 UTC on Friday, was recorded at 966 hPa.
Where is Cyclone Maila heading?
While the cyclone remains slow moving, weather models suggest that a west-southwest movement should settle over the next 24 hours. According to the BoM’s latest analysis, the most likely track will take Maila to the southwest and pass close to southeastern Papua New Guinea.
After moving past Papua New Guinea, the system is expected to continue on a general westerly to west-southwesterly trajectory towards Australia’s Cape York Peninsula. However, forecasters caution that there is still considerable variance in the storm’s long-term and forward speed.
Impacts on the Queensland coast are possible as early as Monday into the middle of next week, most likely around the Cape York Peninsula.
Alternatively, some recent model guidance suggests that Maila could be tracking west rather than southwest. In this scenario, interactions with the topography of southeastern Papua New Guinea could cause the system to weaken rapidly over the weekend and dissipate into a trough in the Coral Sea early next week.
Regional impacts and warnings
It is currently located over the Solomon Sea and the unfavorable environment has initiated a gradual weakening of the storm. Persistent easterly wind shear and a decrease in local sea surface temperature—caused by oceanic upwelling from the slow-moving storm—degraded Mail’s satellite signature, resulting in the loss of the eye and a reduction in central convection.
As Maila moves southwest, southeastern Papua New Guinea is expected to face the storm’s immediate impacts over the weekend. Forecasters warn the region could experience an extended period of damaging winds as the system passes close by.
However, the cyclone is expected to interact negatively with mainland Papua New Guinea and is likely to see a further reduction in strength. If the storm entered directly into the region’s topography, it could weaken rapidly and not reach the Australian coast as a cyclone.
Conversely, a handful of models suggest the storm could even weaken in-situ over the Solomon Sea before moving much further.
