Congress bets on DK Shivakumar for 2028 polls, Vokkaliga polls and Old Mysore region

Newly elected Congress Legislature Party (CLP) leader DK Shivakumar (right) with former Chief Minister Siddaramaiah, Leader of the Opposition in Lok Sabha Rahul Gandhi and Congress President Mallikarjun Kharg in New Delhi. | Photo credit: Special arrangement

While the elevation of Congress leader DK Shivakumar as the Chief Minister of Karnataka may on the surface appear to be essentially honoring the announced power-sharing deal that saw him assume the mantle after reaching the midterms, in reality the decision appears to have been made by the Congress high command with an eye on the 2028 Assembly and 2029 Lok Sabha polls.

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Congress sources point out that even if Siddaramaiah is allowed to complete the entire five-year term, the party would face a leadership crisis at the end of his term in 2028 as he would be 80 years old by then and would not be in a position to lead the party in the next polls. Elevating 64-year-old Mr. Shivakumar now would help strengthen his position and put him in a better position to lead the party in the 2028 polls.

In the southern states

The Congress, which is in power in Telangana and Kerala besides being in alliance with the ruling TVK in Tamil Nadu, believes it has the potential to retain power in Karnataka in 2028. Though Karnataka’s history shows that no ruling party has retained power in the last four decades, the Congress high command believes the party can buck the trend if it panvagomar’gets.

By betting on Mr. Shivakumar, who hails from the Vokkaliga community, which has a dominant presence in the Old Mysore region, the Congress has made it clear that it is looking at consolidating the gains made in 2023 in the region.

The Congress, which has an overwhelming majority in the 224-member assembly with 138 MLAs, won 51 of the 87 seats in the Old Mysore region, including Bengaluru. Although the party’s core support base is seen as Ahinda (Kannada acronym for Minorities, OBCs and Dalits), the party wants to build a political combination by wooing a section of Vokkaliga voters by projecting Mr. Shivakumar as its face for the next assembly polls.

Profit and loss

Mr. Shivakumar’s supporters say the party was able to win a significant number of seats from the Old Mysore region in 2023 as Mr. Shivakumar was also in the running for the Chief Minister’s post. But in the subsequent 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the Congress could barely win two seats in the region, making a total of 14 MP seats. Mr. Shivakumar’s supporters attribute the loss in one year to Mr. Shivakumar not being in a leadership position.

They argue that going into the next assembly elections without declaring Mr. Shivakumar as the chief ministerial candidate may not help any progress in the Vokkaliga-dominated Old Mysore area. The Congress high command also seems to have backed this argument with the sequence of events that led to the selection of Mr. Shivakumar for the chief ministerial post.

Friction track

But this strategy is bound to put Mr Shivakumar at odds with the Janata Dal (S), and particularly its state president and Union minister HD Kumaraswamy, as his political strength also comes largely from the region. A tough and intense political battle between Mr. Shivakumar and Mr. Kumaraswamy is expected to take place in the region in the coming days as the political fate of both the leaders depends on their hold and performance in the region. Signs of such a political battle have already emerged in the past six months.

Meanwhile, sources in the Congress insisted that they did not ignore Mr. Siddaramaiah’s worth while conducting the changing of the guard. “Mr. Siddaramaiah is a huge personality with a mass political base. But due to his advanced age and the current political circumstances, the party feels that Mr. Shivakumar will be more beneficial to the party in the long run. Mr. Siddaramaiah’s departure should not be seen as a departure from the Ahinda vote base as the party would not change its policies or Congress programs towards them.” “The party would only try to add some of the Vokkaliga votes to Ahinda,” he noted.

Published – 03 Jun 2026 11:54 IST