Chess Olympiad 2026: Can India retain their gold medals on the final day in Samarkand?

D Gukesh and Koneru Humpa (FIDE Photos) NEW DELHI: The hour of decision is upon us. The countdown has begun. The winners of the open and women’s sections of the 46th Chess Olympiad will be decided today. Does India have a chance to retain the gold medals? Sure, maybe more for the open team, less for the women, though there’s still a path to a minor miracle even there. Either way, the fate of both Indian teams is no longer entirely in their own hands. They will have to win their own games and then hope that the teams above them slip elsewhere.On Saturday, in Round 10, India got exactly the kind of win they needed, beating second-placed Uzbekistan 3.5-0.5 in Samarkand. Praggnanandhaa got off to a flying start with a win over Jakhongir Vakhidov, Nihal Sarin cruised to victory after his opponent Mukhammadzokhid Suyarov made an early error, and Gukesh added a smooth London System win of his own against Ortik Nigmatov.Arjun Erigaisi was the one who left something on the table. Against Abdimalik Abdisalimov, he was in an absolutely winning position but was unable to finish and instead settled for a draw.Uzbekistan’s own top team made no such mistakes and crushed Armenia to remain perfect. This result leaves the standings in order heading into Sunday’s final round. Uzbekistan lead the way with 18 match points, with India alone in second place with 17. Germany, Ukraine and Hungary form the chasing pack, all with 16.

Open Section: India is dominant but the door is not completely open

The equation for gold is straightforward, though the odds require some help. Uzbekistan face Ukraine, a side in decent form after beating China in the penultimate round, with Vasiliy Ivanchuk and Roman Dehtiarov among those capable of causing an upset.Meanwhile, India face Hungary, a team lacking a bit of firepower at the top (Richard Rapport played solid rather than spectacular chess) but dangerous further down the order, where Gleb Dudin has been in the form of his life.If India beat Hungary and Uzbekistan lose to Ukraine, the gold will go straight to India. If India win and Uzbekistan draw, the two sides will end up level on match points and there will be a Sonneborn-Berger tiebreaker, which is basically a measure of the strength of the teams you beat. It’s not a tiebreaker India is likely to win; without many big wins throughout the tournament, India would probably not have reached Uzbekistan’s score even in a shared points scenario.If Uzbekistan win regardless of India’s result, they will clinch the title. What is virtually certain, however, is that a win against Hungary will ensure India at least silverware.

Women’s section, a much tougher ask

In the women’s section, the picture is significantly tighter and less favorable. India needed something special against China on Saturday to keep their own golden hopes fully alive, and for a long time it looked like they might slip away altogether.Koneru Humpy and Divya Deshmukh drew their games on the first two boards before Vantika Agrawal, despite reaching a promising position, was rewarded by a brilliant piece of play from Lu Miaoyi to lose on board three.So it all came down to Savitha Shri against Zhai Mo on deck four.It almost didn’t work out. With White playing, Savith’s 19.Bg5 proved to be the moment when the game almost got away. Zhai’s reply, 19…Nxd4, grabbed the pawn and attacked the white queen at the same time, creating a forced capture sequence (20.Bxd8 Nxc2 21.Bxc2 Raxd8) that saw the queens and minor piece fall off the board. When the smoke cleared, Savitha was a pawn down, in exactly the kind of position that punishes a single lost moment.What followed was one of the most daring fights of the tournament. Savitha plowed through a long rook-knight middle game, gradually improving her pieces and refusing to be poisoned by the earlier deficit, before finding an outside pawn passed on the a-file that became her lifeline.She played the position very patiently, move by move, all the way to the board, and once she reached a7 and nothing could stop her, Zhai had no choice but to resign.It kept India’s 2-2 draw against China intact and with it India’s gold medal hopes alive, if only fair. This result puts China in first place with 18 points, Kazakhstan second with 17 and India sharing third place with Poland and Vietnam with 16.The last-round pairings make India’s path to the gold a narrow one indeed.China face Vietnam, a good side themselves, with their best individual threat probably from their fourth board, while Kazakhstan face Poland, who India know something about, having lost to Poland themselves earlier in the tournament, which is exactly why Kazakhstan slip in there as realistic.India, on the other hand, play Georgia, who have a strong line-up on paper led by Nana Dzagnidze, Bella Khotenashvili, Lela Javakhishvili and Meri Arabidze in Deck 4 for Sunday’s encounter.On the other hand, India fielded Humpy, Divya, Vantika and Savitha with Vantika rested. They decided to keep it the same on the last day as well.Three things need to happen on the same day for India to have a real chance at gold.First, they need to beat Georgia and if possible increase their score in the tiebreaker by a healthy margin; China must lose outright to Vietnam (a draw would still put China on 19 points, out of India’s reach even with a win); and Kazakhstan must draw or lose against Poland. It is not impossible; but to require three separate results to fall the right way in the same round, with China needing to lose, not just drop points, is exactly the kind of outside chance that needs a touch of the miraculous.

Savitha Shri in the 10th round of the Chess Olympiad (photo by Michal Walusza for FIDE)

Individual medals also in the mix

Apart from the team standings, both Indian teams have strong individual opponents heading into the final round.With 8.5 points from 10 games, Gukesh is a serious contender for individual gold on his board and will take on Hungary’s Gleb Dudin, who himself sits at seven from nine, in one of the most closely watched individual matches of the day.READ ALSO: Dad quit Singapore job, pawned jewelery to fund chess dream: Savitha Shri’s Olympics-bound storySavitha Shri, who is unbeaten in nine matches and has 8.5 points herself, is in just as strong a position for an individual medal of her own, regardless of how the team event is ultimately resolved.