India head coach Gautam Gambhir and captain Shubman Gill. (PTI Photo) NEW DELHI: India’s hopes of reaching a third World Test Championship (WTC) final after being knocked out in the last cycle took a major hit after a stunning 2-0 defeat in the home series against South Africa. The whitewash – India’s second at home in two years – left Shubman Gill fifth in the WTC table with 48.15%, exactly halfway through their 2025-27 campaign. Having completed nine of their 18 Tests, the equation is now stark: India must be near-perfect from here if they want to reach the top two.Go Beyond The Boundary with our YouTube channel. SIGN UP NOW!While the standings are still fluid – New Zealand have yet to play a series, Sri Lanka and Pakistan have played just one each and England have just started their second match – the early dominance of Australia (100%) and South Africa (75%) has pushed India into a corner. Benchmarks from previous cycles suggest teams typically need 60-65% to qualify. India reached the final in 2023 with 58.8%, while Australia finished second in the previous cycle with 67.54%.
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At the halfway point, India have 52 points (four wins, four losses, one draw). To reach the 60% mark in the cycle – 130 points out of a possible 216 – they still need 78 points from the remaining nine tests. Under the current point system (12 for a win, 4 for a draw), the math is inexorable.Here’s how India can get 130 points from the remaining nine Tests:
- Six wins + two draws = 80 points
- Seven wins = 84 points
Anything less and they will need other teams to stumble badly.The second half of India’s campaign begins with trips to Sri Lanka (August 2026) and New Zealand (October-November 2026). India have traditionally dominated Sri Lanka – five wins in their last six Tests there – but New Zealand remained a formidable challenge, where India lost 2-0 in 2020 and 1-0 in 2014. Even a 4-0 return from those tours may leave India still in need of big results in their final – and toughest – assignment: five home Tests against Australia in early 2027.Australia look favorites to seal an early finals spot after winning all four Tests so far and hosting Bangladesh and New Zealand later in the cycle. With three wins from four away matches, South Africa also have a strong platform despite a tough home run.India’s first stumble on home soil means their margin for error has disappeared. Their path to the WTC finals is still wide open – just narrower than ever.
