Meteorologists at Colorado State University said on Thursday (local time) that the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to fall below historical averages due to an El Niño pattern that sends winds that could rip into tropical storms across the southern United States, Reuters reported.
The university said in a statement: “While the intensity of the likely El Niño is uncertain, the CSU team anticipates that a mild to strong El Niño is most likely at the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season from August to October.
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The Atlantic hurricane season starts from June 1 and usually lasts until November 30, with the peak of the season being witnessed between August and October.
13 tropical storms are expected
Colorado’s closely watched forecast predicts 13 named tropical storms in 2026, including six hurricanes, two of which are expected to become major hurricanes with winds in excess of 111 mph (179 km/h).
By comparison, the average hurricane season from 1991 to 2020 produced 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
Storm development may be limited by cooler than average sea surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. However, warmer than normal waters in the western tropical Atlantic could support storm formation.
In 2025, there were 13 named storms and five hurricanes, with four reaching major hurricane status. That season caused more than $9 billion in damage and resulted in 126 deaths.
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The hurricane season forecast will be updated
According to CBS News, the team of meteorologists acknowledged that their April forecast is preliminary and will be updated once hurricane season begins. Even so, the early forecast is closely watched each year by officials and residents in hurricane-prone areas, particularly Florida and states along the Gulf Coast and East Coast, as they prepare for possible future impacts.
Delián Colón-Burgos, who co-authored the forecast, said: “We always advise coastal residents to prepare in the same way for every season,” adding: “When we put it out there in April, people will be thinking about what’s coming in the next few months.”
Hurricane activity will drop by 75% of the long-term seasonal average
Hurricane activity in 2026 is expected to see a 75% decrease from the long-term seasonal average, the forecast predicts. If accurate, it would mark a slight decrease from last year’s hurricane season, which saw 13 named storms, five hurricanes and four major hurricanes, though none directly made landfall in the country. By comparison, federal data indicates an average season produces 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
Probable shift in atmospheric conditions
The main reason for the scientists’ below-average hurricane forecast is the expected shift in atmospheric conditions, which can either encourage or suppress the development of storms, according to Colón-Burgos.
An important factor is the expected arrival of El Niño, the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, this summer. Characterized by changes in sea surface temperatures and rainfall in the Pacific Ocean, this climate pattern affects weather across the United States and often signals how active hurricane season can be.
During El Niño, Atlantic hurricanes are usually less frequent and less intense.
The Climate Prediction Center estimates a 62% chance that El Niño will develop between June and August and last through at least the end of 2026. Forecasters expect it to be fully established and possibly strong during the peak of this year’s hurricane season.
