AFC Nations League explained: What it means for India’s FIFA World Cup dream
Asia’s route to the FIFA World Cup could look very different from 2030, when the Asian Football Confederation proposes a biennial Nations League that would bring qualification for the World Cup and Asian Cup into a single, more structured system. It could mean more meaningful football for India, but it could also make it harder to qualify for the World Cup.
According to ESPN’s draft plans, the AFC proposes a three-tier Nations League involving all 47 member associations, with 18 teams in each of the top two tiers and 11 in the third. The first official edition is proposed for 2030, while a pilot competition in 2028-29 would help decide where teams will sit when the new system is launched.
The real significance of the proposal will be revealed when the League of Nations is linked to the FIFA World Cup. The first such edition is proposed for 2032-33, when the 18 teams in Tier 1 would play 12 matches, six at home and six away. The top six would qualify directly for the World Cup, while the teams finishing seventh to tenth would have another chance through a play-off, with the third-place team earning an intercontinental play-off berth. India recently played Brazil at the Salt Lake Stadium in Kolkata. (Photo by Reuters)
HOW THE THREE LEVELS WORK
The basic idea is to replace the existing Asian mosaic of qualifying groups with three competition levels covering the entire continent.
Tier 1: 18 teams
This would be the top division and, in editions associated with the World Cup, the part of the Nations League where qualification for the tournament is decided. Each team would play six games at home and six away.
The top six would qualify directly for the World Cup. The teams in seventh to tenth place would then enter a four-team play-off, with the top two gaining the remaining direct qualification spots and the third-placed team advancing to the intercontinental play-off.
There is another prize at stake. The top eight teams in Tier 1 would advance to the knockout stages of the Nations League, with home and away quarter-finals before the semi-finals and final at a central location.
Level 2: 18 teams
Tier 2 would sit immediately below the top division, making promotion a clear target for its strongest teams. At the other end, the teams struggling at the bottom would have to fight to avoid relegation.
The division would also matter in the editions associated with the Asian Cup. The top six teams from Tier 2 would qualify for the Asian Cup along with all 18 teams from Tier 1.
Level 3: 11 teams
Tier 3 would contain the remaining AFC members, divided into three groups. For many of these nations, this would be the starting point of their ascent through Asian football.
Promotion would offer a route to stronger competition, while the overall system would allow teams to move between divisions through automatic promotion and relegation, as well as play-offs for promotion and relegation places.
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR INDIA?
For India, the first question is not even about qualifying for the World Cup. It is about where India starts.
The AFC does not intend to simply take the FIFA rankings and use them to populate the three divisions. The results from the 2028–29 transition competition will help determine the starting line-up and give India a chance to influence where they start. The pilot itself will retain the broad form of the current World Cup qualification system before the full Nations League comes into effect in 2030.
That makes the proposal more complex than simply creating another World Cup route. If India starts outside Tier 1, their first task will be to gain promotion before they can compete in the division that decides World Cup qualification. Indian fans are waiting for their team to qualify for the FIFA World Cup. (Photo by Reuters)
However, there is a potential advantage to this structure. India would no longer view international football as a cycle that effectively resets itself every four years. Performances would have implications beyond a single qualification campaign, with promotion, relegation and future qualification positions all linked.
On the flip side, a bad cycle could see India try to climb back into the top division, while Asia’s strongest teams continue to directly compete for World Cup spots.
GOOD: MORE MEANINGFUL FOOTBALL
The strongest argument in favor of the League of Nations is also the simplest. It gives the Asian teams more matches that actually mean something.
Instead of relying so much on friendlies during international windows, teams should play for promotion, relegation, Asian Cup qualification and for tier 1 sides World Cup qualification. Any campaign would have clearer implications.
This could be particularly useful for India. Recent friendlies with Brazil and Uruguay have exposed elite opposition, but development also hinges on regular encounters between teams approaching India’s level in competitive matches.
The knockout stage would add another layer. The top eight teams in Tier 1 would advance to the quarter-finals, with home and away matches followed by the semi-finals and final at a central venue.
For nations trying to close the gap between Asia’s established powers, it creates something the current system doesn’t always provide: a clear ladder to climb.
WRONG: ASIA IS NOT EUROPE
However, this ladder must stretch across one of the world’s largest and most geographically complex continents.
Traveling from Japan to Saudi Arabia is a very different proposition from traveling between neighboring European countries. Long flights between East and West Asia bring higher costs, greater demands on players and staff, and more difficult recovery periods.
The financial gap across the continent makes this problem even more acute. A wealthy guild can absorb repeated long-distance travel much more comfortably than a smaller federation operating on a much tighter budget.
Then there’s the calendar. The AFC rejected the idea of a separate Nations League partly because of the cost and the limited number of international windows available. Linking the competition to World Cup and Asian Cup qualifiers addresses some of these issues, but it also means putting more emphasis on an already crowded international schedule.
There is also the question of whether Asia’s biggest countries will always welcome compromise. The structured competition gives them meaningful games but also leaves less room to host lucrative friendlies against big teams from Europe and South America.
NO OTHER REGIONAL BUBBLES
The proposal would also change the way Asian geography is treated.
Rather than dividing teams into regional or zonal groups, the AFC wants a continental structure. Teams would be placed in banks, with draws generated using an algorithm designed to create a more balanced schedule.
The reasoning is quite simple. Asian regions do not have the same number of teams or offer the same level of competition. The pan-continental system gives the AFC more control over how often teams meet and how demanding their schedules are.
For India, it could bring more regular encounters with teams from both East and West Asia.
It could also result in significantly more time at airports.
THE ASIA CUP IS ALSO POWERED UP
The League of Nations would not be limited to the World Cup.
The first edition associated with the Asian Cup is proposed for 2030, with the Asian Cup itself proposed to move from 2031 to 2032. Teams would play three matches at home and three away, with each Tier 1 team and the top six Tier 2 teams qualifying for the Asian Cup.
This gives the competition meaning beyond a World Cup race. Even teams that are a bit far from Asia’s elite should have something meaningful to play for, while their Nations League position could influence their journey to the continent’s biggest tournament.
INDIA’S WORLD CUP GAMBLING
So for India, this draft is neither the shortcut to the World Cup nor the hurdle it might initially appear to be.
The attraction is obvious. More competitive football, a defined path through the Asian system and a structure where good results can improve India’s position rather than simply disappear at the end of the qualifying campaign.
But there is another side to it. The system could also make visible the existing hierarchy of Asia. The strongest teams would occupy Tier 1 and have the clearest path to the World Cup, while everyone below them would first have to earn the right to compete for those spots.
Therein lies India’s challenge.
The Nations League could give Indian football a more consistent competition calendar and make the road to the World Cup easier to understand. However, this will not make walking this path any easier.
India will still have to climb.
– The end