The environmental impact study (EIA) has conducted a 72,000 GBP (GNIP) risk of future earthquakes that could cause tsunami on a scale observed in 2004, despite several scientists in the region.
According to the almost 900 -page EIA report, entered by Andaman and Nicobar Islands integrated development corporation and carried out by Vimta Labs, the probability of an earthquake of mega, such as an earthquake of 9.2 sizes that led to the tragedy in 2004, was “low”.
The EIA study, although recognizes the proximity and susceptibility of the region to massive earthquakes, is mainly based on a study by the scientists of the Indian Institute of Technology in 2019, which states that the “return period”, a term for a similar size reappearing, is for mega-earthakes. Earthquake with great magnita (> 7.5).
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The IIT-Kanpur report analyzed the sediments from Badabal Beach in South Andaman and revealed evidence of at least seven large Tsunami events over the past 8,000 years in the region. The report states: “The Andaman segment has sufficient tension to start the mega tsunamigenous earthquake in the near future and that the future earthquake is insecure in the sediment history in the region.” This bit does not appear in the EIA study.
Professor Javed Malik, a scientist who led the Iit-Kanpur study, said that while their study followed the history of the main tsunami, the planner of any main infrastructure on the Nicobar Islands would ideally conduct a “study”. This was because an earthquake, such as the country in 2004, which was concentrated in the Indonesian band Aceh, could be played differently if the original point of Nicobar islands. It was known that Andaman-Sumatra’s failure line was vulnerable to a massive earthquake and there was still no sufficient knowledge of what stretched along this line, probably bursting.
He said that in 2020 at a meeting with government officials, he pointed out that studies similar to those carried out in Andaman should be performed in Nicobar and Campbell areas in Nicobar, but still waiting for it. “Not only can we get an insight into historical earthquakes, but we can estimate the inundation formulas, which can help plan infrastructure projects,” he added.
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Other scientists suggest that there are more sources of Tsunamigenic-Earhquakes that are unknown.
CP Rajendran, geo-scientists and professor at the National Institute for Advanced Bengalur Studies said that his own studies over the years and emerging studies have shown that while the Banda Aceh event could have released a certain amount of energy, there were several other “parallel ruptural lines south of Andamans (and towards Nicobar). “To Add to That, Earthquake Recurrence Is and Non-Linear Process. You Could Have Centuries without Any Mega-Quake and Then Suddenly and Massive One. There Are Local Fault Lines in the Great Nicobar Island Earthquake. “It is better to avoid such an area for a harbor or container terminal.”
The head of the scientist at the Ministry of Sciences of the country acknowledged that while no specific studies on the spot were commissioned on the site on the Nicobar Islands, it would not be possible to predict when the massive earthquake and the “calculated risk” had to be carried out in the project. “Depending on the nature of buildings and infrastructure, design codes will be included, but we can never say when another big earthquake or tsunami will happen. There are much that is not known,” the scientist said.
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GNIP assumes the port of trans-lodi, international airports, the development of the black neighborhood and the 450 Megavolt-leadres (MVA) gas and a solar power plant in GNI. Although the center was awarded the environment and preliminary forest permission, concerns about the potential loss of biodiversity, the verification of trees and the impact on resident tribes were forced by the National Green Tribunal to order the review of the environmental aspects of the project.
The islands were among the worst affected regions during Tsunami-Earthquake in the Indian Ocean in 2004, which required at least 1,500 lives. At least 10,000 Indians died in tsunami.
The region, which falls into the highest seismological category of five, is susceptible to earthquakes because it has an Indian plate diving under the Burmese microdechr along the Andaman ditch in a process known as “subdu”.
Published – 6 July 2025 9:01 IS IS
