North Carolina is bracing for a significant outbreak of severe weather on March 16 as the region falls below Level 4 “moderate risk,” ABC11 reported, citing the National Weather Service in Raleigh.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Storm Prediction Center has issued a rare 4 out of 5 risk rating for Raleigh. The warning is reserved for when widespread and severe thunderstorms are expected.
A strong line of thunderstorms is expected
Forecasters say a strong line of storms with the potential for widespread damaging winds in excess of 75 mph is expected to hit the area during the afternoon and evening of March 16. Meteorologists also warn of a 15% to 30% chance of strong tornadoes and large hail.
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The threat comes a day after a calmer Sunday, when scattered afternoon thunderstorms could bring isolated damaging wind gusts or a brief tornado, ABC11 reported. In addition, a strong cold front is expected to produce Monday’s severe weather, with widespread thunderstorms likely throughout the day. The greatest risk is predicted in the eastern Piedmont, Sandhills and Coastal Plain.
Chances of rain are also likely to increase late Sunday, with evening thunderstorms likely before 1:00. Temperatures are expected to stay in the low 60s overnight. On Monday, however, highs will reach around 70 degrees ahead of a cold front. Winds from the south can gust up to 36 miles per hour even in areas without thunderstorms. Rainfall totals could reach up to three-quarters of an inch, the report added.
Forecasters expect the storms to weaken late Monday night as cooler air moves in. Temperatures are forecast to drop as low as 31 degrees, with west winds gusting to 32 mph. There’s also little chance they’ll overdo it by March 17th.
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According to a WRAL News report, the five levels of serious collapse risks are as follows:
Level 1: The level of risk is marginal. Isolated strong storms are possible, but are limited in both duration and intensity.
Level 2: The risk level is increased. Scattered strong storms are possible, but are short-lived and not widespread.
Level 3: The risk level is increased. Numerous strong storms are possible that are more persistent and widespread.
Level 4: The risk level is high and large-scale severe storms that are long-lasting and widespread can be observed.
Level 5: This is the level where the risk is extreme. Widespread severe storms are expected that are prolonged and intense.
Winter storm warning
A winter storm warning extends from Montana to Michigan, with blizzard warnings in place for parts of South Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa and Michigan’s Upper Peninsula. Smaller areas of Illinois and Nebraska are also under warnings.
More than 100 million people are also under a wind advisory, either a wind advisory or a high wind warning, according to a report in ABC News.
Flight cancellation
The report indicates that at least 1,300 flights have already been canceled due to the persistent weather conditions, nearly half of which were canceled by Delta Airlines as it proactively canceled some flights at Midwest airports this weekend, including its Minneapolis hub to St. Paul.
