IPL 2026 Playoff Qualifying Scenarios: With 7 matches to go, SRH and GT qualify; last place is up for grabs – odds for each team explained

ByTech Word News

SRH beat CSK by 5 wickets (IPL Photo) NEW DELHI: With 7 matches remaining in the league phase of IPL 2026, LSG and MI are already out of contention for the playoffs. RCB, GT and SRH have now qualified. RR ranked best among others followed by PBKS. KKR, DC and CSK are still in the mix but have slim chances. There are now 128 possible combinations of results, so none of the five remaining in the race are certain yet. Let’s look at the probabilities:

  • RCB are now certain to qualify and finish at least tied for 1st place in terms of points. Their worst case scenario is a three-way tie for first place with GT and SRH

  • SRH’s win over CSK on Monday means both SRH and GT have qualified and both have a healthy 75% chance of at least a joint second place

  • RR have a 43.8% chance of finishing in the top four on points and could still finish in a three-way tie with SRH and GT, but there’s only a 6.3% chance of that.

  • PBKS can finish fourth at best (28.1% chance) or share fourth place with KKR (10.9%)

  • KKR’s chances of making the last four individually or together are now 20.3% and if they manage to tie the last slot, it will be with PBKS

  • DC’s chance of getting the last four individually or together is now 18.8%. Their best case is only fourth (3.1%)

  • CSK’s best-case scenario after Monday’s loss is a fourth-place tie with RR or DC or both, and even that is just a 14.1% chance

How we arrive at probabilities: There are 128 possible combinations of results left, 7 matches left. For each team, we looked at how many of them finished in the top four, either individually or in a tie. We also looked at how many combinations placed each team in the top two either individually or together. For example, RCB will finish 1st in points in all 128 possible combinations of match results, some of them as sole leaders and others as joint leaders.