Extreme heat tests record milk production in India

During a summer of extreme heat with temperatures exceeding 40°C last year, similar to what northern India is currently experiencing, dairy farmer Neeraj Bharadwaj watched one of his cows give birth to a calf months early.

The newborn was tiny and almost hairless. People said she would not survive, but Bharadwaj bottle fed her milk until she slowly recovered.

Scientists say such preterm births are part of a wider pattern of increasingly intense summers linked to climate change.

Bharadwaj’s small six-cow farm near Delhi is typical of millions in India, the world’s largest dairy producer responsible for nearly a quarter of global supply, where most milk comes from farms with two to five animals.

The dairy sector accounts for roughly 5% of India’s GDP and supports more than 80 million farmers. Rising incomes and populations mean demand for dairy products will rise – the government estimates it could almost double by 2050.

But extreme heat means cows eat less, produce less milk, struggle to get pregnant and produce fewer live offspring, experts say, while farmers put more effort into keeping animals cool and fertile.

“Milk production drops by almost 30% during extreme heat,” said Bharadwaj, describing how declining output and rising cooling costs are constantly affecting his income.

Record production

Rising milk production has been one of India’s biggest agricultural achievements for decades, fueled by cross-breeding programs aimed at increasing productivity and meeting growing urban demand.

India’s milk production has reached a record 239 million tonnes in fiscal 2023-24, up nearly 64% in a decade, according to government data.

But researchers, dairy experts and farmers say the rising heat is quietly exposing the model’s vulnerabilities.

Scientists at the National Dairy Research Institute (NDRI) said heat stress reduces feed intake and diverts cows’ energy from milk production and reproduction. High-yielding cattle are particularly vulnerable because their metabolism already generates a large amount of internal heat.

The researchers reported that heat stress leads to more abortions and also reduces the fat content of milk. This hurts farmers who are paid according to the amount of fat and solids in the milk they sell.

In response, farmers are spending more on specialized feed and more on water and electricity to try to cool their animals.

Bharadwaj spent about ₹200,000 ($2,100) to retrofit his sheds with tarpaulins and ventilation systems designed to reduce heat stress, while annual maintenance added another ₹50,000 to repair damage caused by frequent storms.

Pankaj Navani, a dairy entrepreneur and consultant working on livestock climate adaptation, said larger organized dairy operators in states like Punjab have adapted more quickly as they increasingly treat dairies as commercial businesses and invest in cooling systems, ventilation and feed management.

But such an investment is difficult for most dairy farmers who operate with only a handful of cattle and limited capital.

“Small farm dairy operations with two to four cows are likely to decline,” Navani said.

Reduce heat stress

Abhinav Gaurav, senior adviser for sustainable dairy at the Environmental Defense Fund India, a Delhi-based nonprofit, said farmers are more likely to invest in climate-resilient practices if they see clear economic gains, but it has been difficult for households already struggling with shrinking margins.

NDRI is working on several ways to reduce heat stress, including breeding more heat-tolerant cattle, improving barn design, and developing feeding strategies that reduce metabolic stress.

Scientists there recently developed and registered a heat-resistant breed of cattle designed to maintain milk productivity in warmer conditions, though they say it would take time to scale such interventions to millions of small farms.

Buffaloes account for almost half of India’s milk production, but scientists say they are particularly vulnerable to extreme heat because they rely heavily on water to regulate their body temperature and drown.

Buffaloes, which previously required basking for only a few summer months, now need cooling support from March to November, NDRI research shows.

According to government livestock data, crossbred and exotic cattle account for a large share of milk production in India due to their higher productivity, while native breeds contribute a smaller share, but are increasingly seen by some farmers as better adapted to rising temperatures.

Bharadwaj said he chose indigenous breeds like the Tharparkar because they are more resilient in extreme heat and require less medical intervention than exotic breeds.

But researchers warn that indigenous breeds alone may not solve India’s long-term dairy problem. The country’s dairy system was built to increase productivity to meet growing demand. And lower-performing cattle may struggle to sustain future consumption without wider improvements in husbandry, cooling systems, feed management and animal health.

Repeated heat waves are also beginning to reshape parts of India’s rural insurance market, with companies now offering products specifically linked to livestock heat stress.

IBISA, a Luxembourg-based climate insurer that offers parametric livestock coverage that triggers payouts automatically when temperatures exceed pre-defined thresholds, says it has insured more than 360,000 livestock over four heat seasons in India and paid out more than $360,000 to farmers affected by lost productivity due to extreme heat.

However, company officials claim that insurance can only partially protect farmers from the rising heat. “What farmers need is not just insurance. Farmers need to adapt to the heat and be resilient,” said IBISA CEO Maria Mateo.

At his farm near Delhi, Bharadwaj faces another tough summer. The feed will have to be adjusted and more money spent on supplements and cooling.

For him, climate change has become part of the everyday economy of milk production. “We are the global leaders in milk production, but we are also among the most vulnerable to climate change,” he said.

Published – 02 Jun 2026 22:48 IST